It’s Trump v. Powell… With American Consumers Caught in the Middle

Markets surged late last week after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested at Jackson Hole that the U.S. central bank may be ready to cut interest rates in September. Traders took it as a green light, while Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Barclays and others quickly pivoted their forecasts. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a September cut at nearly 90%.

I should point out, though, that the Fed isn’t preparing to cut because the economy is booming (which would be counterintuitive). It’s cutting because cracks are starting to appear in the foundation, particularly in the labor market. At the same time, Trump’s sweeping tariffs may be feeding inflation, making Powell’s job more political than ever.

This tug-of-war, between fiscal and monetary policy, gets to the heart of today’s investing landscape.

And nowhere are the consequences clearer, perhaps, than in housing and gold.