Global Dividend Growth Accelerates as the Bull Market Turns Three

Takeaways

Company payouts are stronger compared to previous years, despite brewing macro risks
A weaker dollar and resilient consumer spending support record earnings and stock prices, even amid cautious CEO sentiment
We spot key events as the calendar flips to October, along with happenings at the biggest U.S. bank

Dividend-increase announcements are on the rise. According to the Wall Street Horizon research team, 71.9% of all dividend changes have been positive so far in 2025. That tops the comparable year-to-date figures of 68.8% and 68.6% from 2024 and 2023, respectively. In all, the current-year hike tally is now 3,553. Perhaps the bump is not surprising, given that the global bull market is about to turn three years old.

More dividend payouts mean investment teams need to adjust stock prices to reflect these corporate actions properly in order to conduct time-series analysis. TMX’s Price Adjustment Curve (PAC) provides price adjustments applicable down to tick level prices or even orders, and below you can see the number of recorded adjustments for North American dividends have been steadily increasing. Q2 2025 recorded 11,194 such price adjustments, the largest second quarter tally in our five years of data. With one week left in the current quarter, the Q3 2025 total stands at 8,904.

October also marks the start of the third-quarter earnings season. The big banks begin reporting profit numbers on October 14, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) providing the unofficial kickstart.

Unlike a year ago, however, equity tailwinds are not primarily a U.S. story. With just a handful of trading days left in Q3, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) boasts an 11.4 percentage-point lead over the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Much of the difference is explained by a 10% year-to-date drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).

Help from the Dollar

In general, a softer greenback is a profit tailwind for large multinational corporations as they repatriate their overseas sales from foreign currencies to the dollar. Indeed, S&P 500 earnings per share estimates are at fresh highs. It’s against that backdrop that companies, despite the ongoing tariff threat, are willing to boost their dividends. It may leave you and other investors wondering: What could disrupt the steady diet of dividend-hike announcements?

As always, we can put the spotlight on the consumer. August’s Retail Sales report, released last week, confirmed that household spending is resilient, a softening labor market notwithstanding. The so-called “core control group” of the U.S. Census Bureau’s consumption snapshot rose by 0.7% over the middle month of the third quarter, a crucial period for domestic retailers.¹ The back-to-school shopping season was apparently a hit—particularly for e-commerce firms.

Jobs Data on Tap

Robust consumer spending may hinge on the employment situation. We’ll know more about that next Friday once the September jobs report crosses the wires. Expectations could be low after back-to-back soft payroll gains, not to mention the steep downward revisions from the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) report put out by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics two weeks ago. Further labor-market nuggets could be found in next week’s multitude of employment indicators.

According to our Economic Calendar, with data licensed from Econoday Inc., August job vacancy figures via the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) prints at 10 a.m. ET on September’s final day, the ADP private employment numbers come the following morning, and the now widely followed Challenger Job Cuts survey publishes on Thursday, October 2, in the premarket. Investors shouldn’t discount the importance of the Employment sub index readings within both the ISM’s and S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys. Those are in next week’s queue, too.

What To Do with All That Free Cash Flow?

How the macro setting unfolds could determine companies’ capital allocation plans heading into 2026. We typically don’t see a high number of dividend-increase or decrease announcements in the second half of the year compared to the first half. A strong finish to 2025, though, and next year’s first-quarter sum could eclipse the Q1 2025 dividend-hike tally of 1,803.

And here’s why that’s significant: Investors increasingly prefer that companies return cash flow to them via share buybacks and dividend payments. That was one of the takeaways from BofA’s September Global Fund Manager Survey. Along with increased capital spending, there’s less desire from shareholders for firms to shore up their balance sheets.

Record Buybacks, Record Dividends? JPM In Focus.

So, will that wish come true? With U.S. corporate buybacks reaching $1 trillion in August, we may learn more on the dividend front soon.2 It’s very much a “watch what I do, not what I say” situation.

It’s hard to go a few minutes with financial TV on in the background without your ears perking up due to cautious words from CEOs and other business executives. One of the poster children for cloudy executive outlooks is undoubtedly Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPM. America’s banker routinely expresses trepidation regarding fiscal and other macro matters. Yet guess what big bank announced a significant dividend boost? JPMorgan.

On September 16, the world’s most valuable bank by market cap raised its quarterly dividend from $1.40 to $1.50.3 The press release came after a strong Q2 report issued back in July and the authorization of a new share repurchase program. Now the third-best-performing component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the year, JPM may have eyes on the $1 trillion market-cap figure. If it were to do so, it would join fellow Financials-sector stalwart Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) in that exclusive club.

How the Fed Fits In

And here’s something else to consider on the topic of dividends at this juncture of the economic cycle: Given the Fed’s apparent willingness to run the economy hot in terms of inflation, additional rate cuts may be in store not just in Q4, but throughout 2026. If that happens (and Treasury yields hold in check), it could make dividend stocks all the more attractive compared to bonds.

The Bottom Line

Dividend-increase announcements are tracking above year-ago levels and 2023’s pace. Even with shakiness in the labor market and some guarded outlooks offered by companies during the busy Q3 conference season, shareholders are being rewarded with growing quarterly payouts.

We’ll find out more in the weeks ahead—first from next week’s employment numbers, and second as third-quarter earnings reports roll in (assuming we are sticking with quarterly updates!).

¹ S&P 500 eases a bit from record as traders await big Fed rate decision: Live updates, CNBC, Pia Singh, Alex Harring, September 16, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com
² US Firms Racing Through $1 Trillion Buyback Spree in Record Time, Bloomberg, Joel Leon, August 27, 2025, https://www.bloomberg.com
³ JPMorganChase Declares Increased Common Stock Dividend, JPMorganChase, September 16, 2025, https://www.jpmorganchase.com

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