Takeaways
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Oil prices soared to kick off March after weekend military strikes on Iran, raising geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations
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Earnings are also in focus as semiconductor giants Broadcom and Marvell report on the state of AI before NVIDIA’s GTC conference
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The macro calendar heats up on Friday with February payrolls and January Retail Sales
March came in like a lion. Stock market futures plunged last Sunday night following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. WTI and Brent crude oil had surged 7% by the following morning, along with big gains in gold. It remains to be seen how the Middle East situation unfolds, and President Trump suggested that this geopolitical upheaval will last significantly longer than the brief Venezuela overthrow two months ago.
March Madness is in play—not just in the oil patch, but also on the data deck and with a slew of notable off-season quarterly earnings reports over the back half of this week.
Beige Book and PMIs: Cyclicals in the Crosshairs
Wednesday afternoon gets the action started. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book of regional economic activity could stir up volatility among this year’s strong cyclical stocks.
The monthly update comes following another solid ISM Manufacturing PMI reading released on Monday morning. While the Prices Paid subcomponent tallied its highest reading since CPI’s peak in June 2022, the other parts of the survey were encouraging.
Earnings from Broadcom and Marvell Matter for the AI Trade
Eyes shift back to earnings Wednesday after the bell. That’s when Broadcom (AVGO)—the less-heralded mega-cap tech company not in the Mag 7—issues its fiscal Q1 2026 numbers. Recall that NVIDIA (NVDA) jumped to $203 immediately after its Q4 report last Wednesday night, but the bears then sank their teeth into the world’s most valuable company. CEO Jensen Huang spoke of AI factories and diversified revenue streams, but the stock shed 14% peak to trough after the report and call.
How will AVGO fare? For clues, we can peek into the options market. The straddle prices in a high 8.3% post-earnings swing, according to data from Option Research & Technology Services. Looking back, Broadcom plunged 11.3% after its December report, and shares are still mired in a 24% drawdown from their 52-week high.
Marvell Technology (MRVL) is another chip name to watch in the days ahead. It issues Q4 revenue and profit data Thursday night. Not an S&P 500 Index member, shares of the $69 billion market-cap semiconductor firm are also in bear-market territory.
The company has been active on the M&A front, too. It acquired Celestial AI in February for $3.25 billion in one of the year’s biggest tech deals. AI will surely be in focus Thursday night as the market’s attention shifts from geopolitics to artificial intelligence.
Costco’s Comeback: Premium Multiple, Premium Expectations?
The final big earnings play this week is Costco (COST). As tech lags, Consumer Staples remains among the top-performing sectors of the S&P 500 in 2026, though COST fell precipitously from last May through year-end. The downward move was a bit perplexing, as most fundamental data appeared on track.
Maybe it was simply a valuation story—the second-largest Staples constituent traded near a 50x P/E multiple (about twice that of NVIDIA, for context). But the wholesale club company has almost always boasted a premium earnings multiple, and the stock zoomed from $844 last December to back above $1,000 heading into its fiscal Q2 report. Costco will also provide interim same-store sales data for February this Thursday AMC.
Jobs and Retail Sales: A Rare Data Double-Header
From there, major macro numbers hit on Friday. In an unusual circumstance, we’ll simultaneously receive the February Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET and the now-dated January Retail Sales update.
Our economic calendar will light up with labor market nuggets like the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data, along with the Retail Sales report’s core control sub-reading.
Fodder for the Fed
Both the nonfarm payrolls data and consumer spending figures will feed into Q1 GDP. Recall that it was just two weeks ago when the Q4 pace of economic expansion came in much weaker than expected.
Soft data may tip the Fed’s hand in favor of a cut—potentially before Jerome Powell’s term as chair is up—but strong reports could keep the FOMC on hold through June. Moreover, there’s upward inflation pressure heading into the spring, given the oil shock.
CEOs Take the Mic
So, there’s a lot to digest from both a micro and macro perspective. We’re also in the heart of conference season, with four potentially market-moving Energy events in the queue:
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March 16: Piper Sandler 26th Annual Energy Conference
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March 17: UBS Global Energy and Utilities Conference
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March 23: CERAWeek
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March 24: Bank of America Energy, Utilities & Infrastructure Conference
These gatherings take on added importance with WTI above $70 and Brent oil not far from $80 per barrel. Listen for clues on production plans and price outlooks from oil and gas executives.
Unfortunately, there are no major Aerospace & Defense conferences in the immediate future. But there is a presentation event from Howmet Aerospace (HWM) on Tuesday, March 10. The industry has been in full-fledged bull market mode, with the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF notching a new all-time high this week.
It’s Gametime! NVIDIA GTC AI
But the biggest company shindig will undoubtedly be NVIDIA’s GTC AI Conference from March 16–19. Jensen takes the stage from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET. It will be a March Madness sort of vibe, but the CEO must deliver. It’s clear that expectations are high for the proverbial No. 1 S&P 500 seed.
The Bottom Line
Beware the Ides of March. Indeed, now through the 15th and beyond could be riddled with volatility, and the final month of the first quarter is already off to a wild start. Notable earnings events, major macro data, and a slew of industry-moving corporate events are on tap. Keep abreast of it all with Wall Street Horizon’s industry-leading corporate event data.
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