Critical Updates Could Provide Near-Term Market Insights

by Larry Adam of Raymond James, 4/25/26

Key Takeaways

  • Key consumer and manufacturing data will offer clarity on the economic outlook
  • ~44% of S&P 500 market cap will report next week – the busiest week of 1Q26 earnings
  • The April FOMC meeting will garner attention as potentially Chair Powell’s last

The past few weeks have delivered a series of milestones for the equity market. The S&P 500 not only posted the fastest recovery to new record highs following a 7%+ drawdown but also crossed above 7,000 for the first time.

What comes next?

The index is on the verge of doubling for the first time in this bull market – currently up ~99% – a move that would take just under 3.5 years, slightly faster than the historical average of 3.9 years. While all sectors are in positive territory over this period, leadership has been narrow with only three – technology, communication services and industrials – posting gains above 100%.

History suggests this bull market still has room to run, as the average cycle lasts 5.6 years and generates gains of roughly 191%. The key question is the near‑term outlook for the economy and markets. We should get important insights next week with critical updates on the conflict in Iran, the economy, earnings and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Below is what we are watching:

US-Iran conflict uncertainty

The recent ceasefire between the US and Iran – and the resulting de‑escalation – has been a key catalyst for the rally in risk assets. That said, significant differences remain, including the status of the US blockade, Iran’s future control of the Strait of Hormuz and the duration of curbs on nuclear production, and negotiations have stalled. President Trump extended the ceasefire to allow Iran time to reach an internal consensus, and recent reports suggest the Iranian foreign minister plans to go to Islamabad this weekend. While both sides appear to be searching for an off‑ramp and an end to the conflict, we view the durability of the ceasefire as the most critical factor for markets. Even so, the risk of renewed escalation remains a meaningful tail risk, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the greater the potential for broader economic damage. The coming week will be pivotal for the conflict’s outlook.

Key economic data on tap

Economic fundamentals have remained resilient so far, even in the face of higher energy prices. This week alone, jobless claims held near multi‑decade lows, the retail sales “control group” rose at its fastest pace in seven months and credit card companies – including Synchrony Financial and American Express – highlighted steady spending across both high‑ and low‑income consumers. That said, several real‑time indicators we track are beginning to flash caution. TSA screenings have dipped negative on a year-over-year basis, restaurant bookings are flat and hotel occupancy is running below last year’s levels. The timing of the Easter holiday may be a factor, but these trends warrant close monitoring. Next week should offer greater clarity on the economic outlook. Consumer confidence (April) and PCE (March) will gauge household health and spending, while ISM Manufacturing (April), Durable Goods (March) and regional Fed surveys from Dallas and Richmond will shed light on factory activity. Building permits (March) will also provide an update on housing. While the economy should remain on solid footing, the longer energy prices stay elevated, the greater the risk to underlying fundamentals.

Read more: A Pivotal Time for the Federal Reserve