Existing home sales were modestly boosted in April, inching up 0.2% following a 2.9% decline in March. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units, falling just short of the projected 4.05 million. On a year-over-year basis, sales are flat.
Insights from the NAR
Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun pointed to a "perfect storm" of headwinds currently stalling the market: buyer hesitancy, the inventory gap, and price resilience.
“Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains.”
“Inventory still remains tight,” Yun added. “Multiple offers, though not as intense as a few years ago, are still occurring. At the same time, days on market are lengthening on average, implying that consumers are taking their time before making decisions.”
“The increase in second-home purchases reflects stronger finances among higher-income households, as well as the post-COVID rise in remote work and hybrid job schedules.”
(Press release)
Background: Why Existing Home Sales Matter
Existing home sales measures the monthly sales of previously owned single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because they account for roughly 90% of the residential market, they serve as a vital pulse check on the broader economy.
There is a high correlation between these sales and broader consumer spending. A move into a "new" existing home typically triggers secondary purchases in furnishings, appliances, and home improvement. Conversely, a sustained downturn in this data often serves as a leading indicator of economic contraction.
Over this time frame, we clearly see the real estate bubble, which peaked in 2005 and then fell dramatically. Sales were volatile for the first year or so following the Great Recession with monthly sales as low as 3.45 million units to as high as 5.44 million units. We have seen that same volatility following the most recent recession, with sales ranging between 3.85 million units to 6.73 million units.
Existing Home Sales: The Population-Adjusted Reality
While raw data shows a market in flux, adjusting for population growth reveals a deeper trend. Since 2000, the U.S. population has grown by approximately 23.3%. Existing home sales are 23.1% below the NAR's January 2000 estimate but when we account for population growth, current sales levels are 37.0% below turn-of-the-century levels.
The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage in April 2026 was 6.33%. While lower than recent peaks, the rate remains high enough to sustain the "lock-in effect," where homeowners are reluctant to trade in their current low-interest mortgages for new, higher-rate loans, further suppressing available inventory.
Existing Home Sales: Median Price
The median price for an existing home rose for the third consecutive month in April to $417,700, the highest level since last August. This represents a 2.1% increase from the previous month and a 0.9% increase from one year ago, marking the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.
ETFs associated with residential real-estate include: iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ).
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