Refine Search

Search Results

Results 51–100 of 169 found.

Election Outcome Promises Change
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/16/16

Needless to say, the surprise victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has changed the economic outlook on many fronts.

An Economic Analysis of the U.S. Election
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore and Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/10/16

A mistake many in my profession have made in the past year has been underestimating the difference between overall economic performance and its translation to the fortunes of constituents. This was at the heart of the Brexit vote last June and was the driving force behind yesterday’s U.S. outcome.

The Two Faces of the U.S. Labor Market
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/5/16
The October employment report was another in a long line of positive readings. A net of 161,000 new positions were created in October, putting the year-to-date average at 181,000.

Trying to Avoid a Bad Trade
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/28/16
In the present day, there are an increasing number of people around the world whose attitudes toward trade are darkening.

Global Economic Outlook - October 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Brian Liebovich, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/27/16

At the three-quarter pole, the global economy is muddling through a disappointing 2016. Growth in developed and emerging markets continues, but at a pace that has fallen short of expectations.

Breaking Up Is Hard to Do
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/21/16
The narrow victory for the Brexit camp last June led many analysts to predict the worst.

A Taxing Campaign
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/15/16
Tax policy is one of the central issues that American voters will consider in making their choices on Election Day.

A Resilient Economy
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/13/16

There were concerns throughout the summer that U.S. economic conditions had weakened. Based on incoming reports, though, the weight of economic evidence remains positive.

The Myths of Manufacturing
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/7/16
2016 has not been the most robust of years for the global economy, but recent news on manufacturing has been upbeat.

U.S. Health Care Needs Major Surgery
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/1/16
Covering the subject comprehensively would require far more space than we normally allot to our weekly musings. In the main, it seems clear that the system’s costs and benefits are dangerously misaligned.

Rulers and Rules
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/24/16
Rules play an important role in an economy. Most regulations are designed, at least in theory, to facilitate the achievement of good overall outcomes. But some directives beget unintended consequences and others take on a life that goes far beyond their initial purpose.

A Hawkish Hold
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/22/16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended the meeting today without a change to the policy rate. But they sent clear signals that a rate increase in December is a strong possibility.

Where's the Inflation?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/17/16
At its peak, the United States was experiencing 15% inflation, a level that is now seen as unconscionable even in emerging markets. The problem seemed intractable.

Focus on the Forest Not the Trees
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/14/16
Doubts about the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy surfaced in the past few weeks. There are soft spots in the economy, but these are not enough to shake the positive fundamentals in place.

Beware of Larger for Longer
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/12/16
Business cycles were disrupted by the chaos of 2008. To respond, central banks have extended themselves in an effort to reach a more settled equilibrium.

Looking Past the Olympic Carnival
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/28/16
Growing substantially from the first modern Olympics in 1896, which included just 34 events contested by 241 athletes from 14 countries, this year included 306 events and 11,303 competitors from 207 countries.

Slow Summer Daze
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 8/18/16
The subdued performance of the U.S. economy in the second quarter planted doubts about the underlying fundamentals. Is activity going through seasonal doldrums, or is something more fundamental at play?

Summer Reading: Bernanke’s Profile in Courage
by Courage Carl R. Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 8/12/16
At a lunch last month, a group of economists were attempting to understand the roots of the popular discontent that has marked this year’s U.S. presidential campaign. One of our number speculated that it began with the bank bailouts in 2008, which appeared to cushion Wall Street while Main Street slipped into a deep recession.

Global Economic Outlook - July 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder, Brian Liebovich, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/3/16
In late June, the United Kingdom elected to initiate the process of leaving the European Union. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, pessimists were predicting significant collateral damage to global markets and global economic growth.

Will Brexit Be a Bother?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/12/16
Last week, the United States celebrated 240 years of independence from the United Kingdom. While relations after the separation were initially complicated, the two countries have grown to become close allies.

Brexit Has Created a Run on U.S. Treasuries
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/11/16
The U.K. situation remains highly uncertain. Investors continue seeking the safety of government securities, but an increasing number of sovereign bonds around the world carry negative interest rates.

FOMC Preview: Resetting the Timeline
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/12/16
Without doubt, last Friday’s U.S. unemployment report initiated some substantial reconsideration within the halls of the Federal Reserve, scarcely a week before a critical policy meeting.

Weighing the Positives and the Negatives
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/16
Based on the data available, the second quarter appears to have started on strong footing after a soft performance in the first three months of the year.

Better Times Ahead
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 5/12/16
The U.S. economy went through a soft patch in the first quarter. Seasonal adjustment issues played a small role in tipping growth to the soft side. More importantly, a positive outlook for the rest of the year remains in place.

Driving in the Slow Lane, for Now
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 4/8/16
After a turbulent start, the first quarter ended on a calmer note. There were moments when the U.S. economy appeared to defy expectations, and there were moments when the outlook was not rosy. On net, forward momentum remains in place.

The Collision of Aspiration and Reality in India
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/27/16
As China falters somewhat, India has become the world’s new economic darling. Hopes of residents and global investors are lofty, but reality suggests a cautiously optimistic stance.

The Resilient Economy
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/10/16
A Headwinds from China, market turbulence and soft economic reports cast doubt about the strength of U.S. economic fundamentals as 2016 began. But the most recent data provide evidence to the contrary.

The “Gasoline Dividend” May Not Be That Powerful
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/6/16
The price of gas has again burst through a threshold once thought unapproachable. This time, though, the invisible line was at $2 per gallon. But happily, we breached it on the downside.

China Faces Capital Punishment
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore | of Northern Trust, 2/26/16
The Chinese are presently giving a lot of consideration to gaps in a different kind of barrier, one that restricts the flow of money instead of people. Despite a system of controls, capital has left the country in significant amounts, pressuring Chinese markets and the Chinese currency.

The British Question
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/19/16
The relationship between the United Kingdom and European Union (EU) has historically been complex. A significant amount of the British public view EU laws as burdensome, object to inward migration, and take issue with U.K. funds contributing to EU budgets.

Focus on Economic Fundamentals
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/11/16
Adverse financial market developments have led to an overflow of bearish analyses. It is certainly dangerous to ignore market signals, but they aren’t always conclusive. There are some positive fundamentals in place that provide some reassurance around the outlook.

A Tale of Two Economies
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/14/16
U.S. economic growth appears to have shifted to a lower gear in the final months of 2015. It has left many concerned about the well-being of the economy and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s recent hike of the policy rate. In this context, it is important to note that the recent slowing reflects a lopsided development not a widespread deceleration of economic activity.

FOMC Preview: Liftoff Is Imminent, but What’s the Flight Plan?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/8/16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering next week became a “live” meeting when the Fed declined to act in September. Those who follow U.S. monetary policy have, therefore, had to stay close to their desks and stay away from the punch bowl.

Steady Is Stellar
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 12/9/15
As we approach the end of the year, it is customary to take stock of major developments. Economic data point to continued forward momentum in the United States. All in, the economy has grown at an average pace of 2.2% during the first three quarters of the year, nearly matching the potential growth rate of the economy. The labor market is in a significantly better spot than it was at the beginning of the year. Inflation is low despite the age of the expansion.

Mario Draghi: Economic Man of the Year
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/25/15
With December just around the corner, awards for full-year achievement are beginning to come out. Sport, politics and the arts are recognizing those who reached the highest heights in 2015.

Growth Will Pick Up
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/12/15
At first blush, the economy’s growth rate in the third quarter (+1.5%) suggests a significant slowing of activity after its solid performance in the second quarter. However, doubts should be set aside, as it was largely a reduction in inventories that held back overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth. In fact, final sales remained strong. Headline growth should pick up as firms increase inventories in the quarters ahead.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/6/15
The weekly commentary is a review of current activity in global financial markets, with an emphasis on the U.S. fixed income market.

Global Economic Outlook - October 2015
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Ieisha Montgomery, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 10/22/15
It has been a challenging interval for the world economy. The summer saw challenges in Greece, heightened uncertainty over China and renewed concern over emerging markets. At its recent meetings, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further downgraded its outlook for global growth.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/17/15
Wealth Has Different Effects in Different Places; Our Good Fortune with Health Care Costs May Soon End; The Nobel Prize Rewards Digging into the Details

Facts and Fear
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/9/15
The economic headlines have been somewhat disappointing over the past few weeks. First, the Federal Reserve failed to raise interest rates in September, partly out of fear that global conditions were eroding. Congress seems headed for another senseless impasse over the debt ceiling. Emerging markets are feeling added pressure. And some think the U.S. job engine has shifted into a lower gear.

FOMC Preview: First, Do No Harm
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/15/15
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is one of the more highly anticipated central bank sessions in years. A couple of months ago, the policy decision that will emerge next Thursday afternoon seemed clear.

The U.S. Economy Is Not Holding Back the Fed
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/10/15
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee meets next week, and there is more uneasiness than usual surrounding the event. Much has changed in the past few weeks, and the Fed’s likely course of action is being examined from a multitude of angles.

Fear of the Fed Is Rising
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ben Trinder of Northern Trust, 8/2/15
My youngest daughter has an acute case of arachnophobia; even the tiniest spider sets her off. When a daddy longlegs appeared in the bathroom of a vacation home we were renting, she covered herself in the shower curtain and ran straight out the front door. It’s gotten so bad that the mere mention of a spider upsets her; the fear is almost worse than the reality

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/21/14
The Bank of England changes course; U.S. inflation is rising, but the Fed seems unconcerned; The situation in Iraq creates additional uncertainty around oil prices.

Why are bond yields and volatility so low?
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/14
This years mid-point review would not be terribly kind to me or to other forecasters. None of us foresaw a big U.S. economic contraction during the first quarter of the year, although we should have better times ahead (as long as the Polar Vortex doesnt return). A more vexing surprise, however, has been the steep decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the persistently low market volatility during the years first half.

The ECB finally acts and hopes for a good reaction
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/6/14
Many have criticized the European Central Bank (ECB) for preferring words over action in recent months. So credit must be given to ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues for enacting a series of measures aimed at shaking the eurozone from its malaise. The question is whether yesterdays decision will result in more credit given to eurozone borrowers.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/22/13
The world needs to do more to stimulate spending. Moderate gains are seen for U.S. holiday sales. The Federal Reserve may change its policy mix.

Economic Update
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/22/12
A look beneath the surface reveals a housing sector still struggling with post-crisis transition. The Federal Reserve is intent on promoting a broader recovery in this area.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/16/12
The focus on the fiscal cliff cannot be overstated. It is very hard for the world's central banks to set rules governing monetary policy. The troika charged with addressing Greece has some internal disagreement.

U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook - November 2012
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/14/12
Our updated forecast anticipates some movement on the "fiscal cliff."
Results 51–100 of 169 found.