As we enter 2026, the U.S. economic momentum continues based on the foundation of a solid private sector with fiscal and monetary policies also contributing to growth. As we refine our global asset allocation, we maintain a diversified overweight stance on U.S. equities despite relatively high valuations.

The U.S. economy appears poised for a measured and confident expansion into 2026 driven by a stabilizing monetary policy, corporate strength, and resilient household income growth. Our outlook suggests a supportive environment for risk assets, particularly domestic equities, while favoring specialized strategies in fixed income.

As investors enter the distribution phase of their financial lives, the priorities of portfolio construction shift dramatically. Liquidity becomes essential, diversification grows more important, and the ability to meet income needs – sometimes by tapping into principal – must be balanced against risk and market volatility.

After decades of increasing global integration, signs of geopolitical and economic fracturing are becoming more visible.

The U.S. economy in late 2025 presents a complex but increasingly coherent picture. Labor market dynamics, trade policy uncertainty, and evolving monetary conditions are each contributing to a recalibration of the economic landscape.

The U.S. dollar has experienced a notable decline in value this year relative to a broad basket of foreign currencies. This depreciation has meaningfully affected the investment returns of U.S. based investors holdings in international stocks and bonds.

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong annualized rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2025, which far outpaced the post-2000 average of 2.3% and easily beat expectations.

The U.S. economy remains resilient despite headline volatility tied to shifting trade and tariff policies. Meanwhile, we continue to see a lot of volatility in the economic data as the world adjusts to these changing policies.

Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.

With the backdrop of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines in addition to the shifting narratives of the election season, we have been focusing on what we are calling the Great Normalization as overall economic trends in the U.S. are getting back to normal.

Discussion about more political oversight or political control of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) occasionally heats up. We are seeing more of this type of discourse today as the election approaches. In our view, limited Fed independence could prove disastrous.

In an election year, we are bound to hear a lot of commentary about the merits and drawbacks of both major candidates’ economic policies. History shows that while a president’s policies can make life easier or more difficult for various sectors of the economy, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy has much more impact on the economy overall.

In terms of manufacturing, value added, which is basically the value of the output minus the costs of the input, the U.S. produces almost twice as much as Japan, more than three times as much as Germany, and five times as much as India.