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It's More Than Just Birth-Death
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 7/10/10
Mauldin examines the methodology used by the BLS when it calculates unemployment. He reviews claims by Jeff Miller of New Arc (which we published on Thursday) that distortions caused by unreported data are greater than those of the birth/death model. Mauldin also discusses a conversation he had with Mohammed El-Erian, who said that unemployment may now be a leading (instead of lagging) indicator of economic growth.

The Dismal Science Really Is
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 7/3/10
Yesterday's unemployment numbers were very bad, and Mauldin explains how they were calculated and the implications of adjustments, such as the birth/death model. Personal income was also down, which is a very rare occurrence. Other indicators, including the money supply, are not indicative of economic growth. The Fed will act aggressively to thwart deflation.

The Risk of Recession
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 6/26/10
The risk of recession is 50/50, but several things could make it less likely: if the expiration of the Bush tax cuts are not as harmful as expected, if those tax cuts are extended, or if there is a pickup in bank lending. The ECRI leading indicators and the M3 money supply numbers are indicating a recession is likely. If there is a recession, it will be deflationary and the Fed will react with another dose of quantitative easing.

Be Careful What You Wish For
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 6/18/10
Governments can fight deficits by cutting spending, but that has the effect of reducing growth, which reduces taxes and income, essentially forcing a recession. This is the situation facing the US. The probability for a recession in the US in 2011 is 50%.

The Frog in the Frying Pan
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 6/11/10
Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London, writes this column as a guest contribution. He says that Mauldin's Muddle Through Economy is the product of several major structural breaks in the economy, which have important implications for growth, jobs, and the timing of a future recession: lower GDP growth will lead to more frequent recessions and higher economic volatility; high unemployment rates will be the norm, especially for less educated workers.

There's a Slow Train Coming
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 6/5/10
The question before the jury is a simple one, but the answer is complex. Is the US in a "V"-shaped recovery? Are we returning to the old normal? Mauldin concludes that the fundamentals are too weak to support robust growth, as typically follows a recession. He cites data from the Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index, which suggests there will be a 2% GDP contraction in the third quarter, which he doubts will happen, but says the consensus 3% seems quite possible. He warns that if we go back into recession, the market on average drops 40%.

Six Impossible Things
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 5/28/10
You can run a trade deficit, reduce government debt and reduce private debt but not all three at the same time. Choose two. Choose carefully. The UK will likely allow the pound to devalue to reduce its deficit, but will face higher costs of imported goods. Greece, in contrast, has no good options, and ultimately will default on its debt.

The Case for a Fed Rate Hike
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 5/22/10
Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? Mauldin thinks there is, but concludes that the Fed is "on hold" until 2011.

Europe Throws a Hail Mary Pass
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 5/15/10
This week's $1 trillion EU bailout is analogous to the US TARP program, and represents a "Hail Mary" last-ditch attempt to save the eurozone. The problems in the EU run deeper than government debt; when private debt is included, overindebtedness is even more striking. Mauldin says the prospects for growth in the EU are dim, the euro will go to parity with the dollar, and the EU will dissolve in the next 5-7 years.

The Center Cannot Hold
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 5/8/10
Citing a paper from the Bank for International Settlements, Mauldin says increasing sovereign debt has two consequences - higher interest rates for that debt and lower growth rates for the underlying economies. Growth in sovereign debt at its current rate is unsustainable and poses systemic risks for the global economy. Fiscal austerity is the only solution, and that seems unlikely, particularly in the case of Greece.

The Future of Public Debt
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 5/1/10
Mauldin defends Goldman Sachs, arguing that buyers of the synthetic CDO it created should have been aware of the risks. He then comments on a paper by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) which analyzes the level of sovereign debt across a number of countries. The BIS says the overall debt levels for these countries, which include many of the G20, are unsustainable, and the US is among those with the worst long-term outlook.

First, Let?s Kill the Angels
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 4/17/10
Provisions in the Dodd financial reform bill will impede angel investing in new ventures. Those provisions are the 120-day waiting period following SEC filing and the increase in minimum wealth requirements for accredited investors. Separately, the problems that Goldman now faces are "the tip of the iceberg," and at least eight other banks will face similar problems.

Reform We Can Believe In
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 4/9/10
Appointments to positions of power in the Federal Reserve system should be independent of the political process and party politics. Credit default swaps should be regulated by requiring that they be traded on an exchange. Commercial and investment banking should be separated, so that commercial banks cannot engage in speculative activity such as running hedge funds. Leverage use by large banks should be restricted. "Fix the big things. Credit default swaps. Too big to fail. Leverage. Then worry about the details. And leave the Fed alone."

Is This a Recovery?
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 4/3/10
"We will likely see a reduction in government spending (from all levels) over the next few years, a really nasty set of tax increases, which will hit small businessmen the hardest, and continued high unemployment, and all of it coming in a weakening economy by the end of the year," says John Mauldin. "I put the odds of a double-dip recession in 2011 at better than 50-50." Mauldin also offers asset allocation advice over a 10-year time frame.

What Does Greece Mean to You?
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 3/27/10
The potential consequences of the Greece debt crisis can be explained by chaos theory, where a small perturbation in one place (the Greek economy) can cause bigger ripples in the global economy. Greek debt is held by European banks, and a Greek default would weaken the European economy. The real crisis, though, is the impending end of a "60-year debt supercycle," which implies many years of deleveraging and a weak global economy.

The Threat to Muddle Through
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 3/20/10
Mauldin criticizes Krugman's call for a 25% tariff on Chinese imports, and instead predicts that China will allow its currency to appreciate 5-7% per year for the next several years. Protectionism, he says, is the biggest threat to global recovery. In defense of his argument, Mauldin says similar tariffs could be imposed if the euro, Yen and the Canadian dollar continue their current trends. The larger problem is the growing US deficit, which must be dealt with in the medium term, or there will be no long term.

The Implications of Velocity
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 3/13/10
Mauldin examines the relationship between the velocity of money, economic growth and inflation. After reviewing the economic theory, he shows that the velocity of money in the US has decreased since the onset of the financial crisis, and attributes this to deleveraging and the pullback from the financial innovations that accelerated the velocity of money, particularly in the 1990s. The Fed has compensated for the slowdown in velocity by increasing the money supply, and Mauldin questions whether the Fed can effectively reduce the money supply once velocity increases.

Welcome to the Future
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 3/6/10
Mauldin reflects on an executive program held by the Singularity University that he recently attended. He discusses the potential for new advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, water purification, biotechnology, and several other areas.

The Multiplication of Money
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 2/26/10
Mauldin begins with a review of the situation in Greece, highlighting recent social unrest, and concluding that the most likely resolution will be relief from the IMF. Next, he rejects recent reports that hedge funds will short the euro and cause it to decline relative to the dollar. He then argues that the reported expansion of M0, M1 and M2 money supply is inconsequential (for inflation), because it is more than offset by a decrease in the velocity of money.

The Pain in Spain
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 2/20/10
Mauldin examine the Greek crisis the the potential direction of the euro. Spain, he says, is a more threatening crisis because its debt is much greater than Greece's. "Pay attention to Greece and Spain and especially Japan over the next few years," he says. "Unless the US gets its fiscal house in order, we will be next."

Between Dire and Disastrous
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 2/13/10
Mauldin discusses the Greek debt crisis and the options for resolving it. A Greek default "would bankrupt the bulk of the European banking system," but that is unlikely, he says. He cites Niall Ferguson's recent article in the FT and argues that the Greek crisis is a precursor to other countries facing similar sovereign debt problems.

A Bubble in Search of a Pin
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 2/6/10
Mauldin covers three topics. He digs into the employment numbers and concludes that it is a "mixed bag" - the numbers of unemployed rose but the unemployment rate declined. Looking at the Reinhart-Rogoff book, he argues that Fed policy makers were at fault for failing to recognize the housing bubble. Last, he discusses Greece's fiscal problems in a historical context.

This Time is Different
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 1/30/10
Mauldin begins with an analysis of the reported Q4 GDP numbers, saying that it is not indicative of underlying growth in the economy. He then comments on the Reinhart-Rogoff book "This Time is Different," focusing on the point that governments can survive debt-fueled growth until confidence in them evaporates. He is discusses Greece's fiscal problems.

Thoughts on the End Game
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 1/22/10
"As for financial markets, we have come full circle to the concept of financial fragility in economies with massive indebtedness. All too often, periods of heavy borrowing can take place in a bubbl

When the Fed Stops the Music
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 1/16/10
Some time in the coming few years the bond markets of the world will be tested. Normally a deleveraging cycle would be deflationary and lower interest rates would be the outcome. But in the face of su

2010 Forecast: The Year of Uncertainty
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 1/9/10
"This will be my tenth annual forecast issue. Time has flown by, and I enter a new decade of writing Thoughts from the Frontline. And even as I write about the high level of uncertainty of the curr

The Age of Deleveraging
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 12/19/09

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 12/12/09

A Conversation with John
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 12/5/09

Why I am an Optimist
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 11/28/09

Where the Wild Things Are
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 11/21/09

If This Is Recovery...
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 11/14/09

The Glide Path Option
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 11/7/09

Catching Argentinian Disease
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 10/31/09

The Best of Times
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 10/24/09

Muddle Through, R.I.P?
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 10/17/09

Killing the Goose
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 10/10/09

Another Finger of Instability
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 10/3/09

Welcome to the New Normal
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 9/26/09

The Hole in FDIC
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 9/19/09

Elements of Deflation, Part 2
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 9/12/09

The Elements of Deflation
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 9/5/09

An Uncomfortable Choice
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 8/29/09

The Statistical Recovery, Part Three
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 8/22/09

The Statistical Recovery, Part 2
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 8/15/09

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 8/8/09

The Great Reflation Experiment
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 8/2/09

The Statistical Recovery
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 7/25/09

Europe on the Brink
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 7/18/09

Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?
by John Mauldin of Millennium Wave Advisors, 7/11/09
Results 801–850 of 908 found.