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The Dangerfield Recovery Or A Skousen Reality
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
During my morning reading I ran across this article by my friend Cullen Roche, via Pragmatic Capitalist, entitled "The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect," or more commonly known as the "Dangerfield Recovery."
The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous articles and analysis discussing the impact on asset prices. The general thesis is based on averages of historical tendencies as discussed recently by David Rosenberg in his daily commentary.
The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come.
BofA Is Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Markets
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bull market.
Dalbar: Why Investors Suck And Tips For Advisors
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Dalbar just recently released their 21st annual Quantitative Analysis Of Investor Behavior study which continues to show just how poorly investors perform relative to market benchmarks over time and the reasons for that underperformance.
10 Investment Quotes To Live By
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As markets hover near all-time highs, investors have become quite complacent that the current bull market trend will continue indefinitely. But why shouldn't they? After all, the Central Banks of the world have made it a primary mission to ensure that asset prices don't fall in order to keep extremely weak economies limping along.
Meet the world’s worst economic forecasters – The Fed
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I have been tracking the Federal Reserves forward looking projections ever since they begin releasing their forecasts. The purpose of tracking these projections was to compare the Fed's forecasts with what eventually became reality. The record is now clear...they are the worst economic forecasters...ever.
Markets Vs Economy - The Great Disconnect
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Last week, the markets hit new "all-time" highs as Greece caved into the demands of the Eurozone, at least for now, in order to secure funding for another four months. The relief that the latest Eurozone crisis has been resolved sent money flowing into equity markets as investors remain "afraid to miss out" on rising asset prices. The general consensus of analysts and economists is that the rise in capital markets is clearly a sign of economic strength which makes equities the "only game in town" as long as Central Banks stand at the fore.
The Daily X-Change - 3 Things - Uncomfortable Facts, 25-54 Employment, Houston RE
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
While the media and mainstream analysts discount the negative economic impact of falling energy costs, I have personally witnessed it in the mid-80's, the late 90's and just prior to 2008. In all cases, the negative outcomes were far worse than predicted which left economists scratching their heads as to what went wrong with their models. Of course, considering the BLS only saw a loss of 1900 manufacturing (oil and gas) jobs in January when there were 26,000 layoffs may explain part of the problem.
Questions Remain After Blowout Employment Report
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I like to think of myself as a pretty simple guy. I don't like complexity or complications, but most importantly I like things to make sense. The latest employment report, which showed a surge in employment in recent months, left me with more questions than answers.
Questions Remain After Blowout Employment Report
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I like to think of myself as a pretty simple guy. I don't like complexity or complications, but most importantly I like things to make sense. The latest employment report, which showed a surge in employment in recent months, left me with more questions than answers.
The Long View: Is The Bull Market In Bonds Almost Over?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There has been much debate about the current low levels of interest rates in the economy today. The primary argument is that the "30-year bull market in bonds", due to consistently falling interest rates, must be near its end. Of course, this debate has devastated the "bond bears" who have consistently been frustrated by lower interest rates despite their annual predictions to the contrary. However, just because interest rates are currently low, does this necessarily mean that they must rise?
3 Things - Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made their latest monetary policy announcement. Janet Yellen, the current Chairwoman, made several statements that led the markets to believe that they remain on course for increasing the overnight lending rate this year.
3 Things - The Fed, Rig Counts And Employment, ECB
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Yesterday, I wrote a fairly lengthy discussion on the biggest fear of the Fed is deflation. As I stated: "The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break."
Deflation Is A Problem For The Fed
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
The biggest worry of the Federal Reserve, and frankly every Central Banker on the planet, is deflation. The reason is that deflation, as an economic pressure, is dangerous and once entrenched becomes difficult to break. For the Fed, the fear of inflation is far less worrisome.
3 Things - Employment, Interest Rates & Retail Sales
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There has been much discussion as of late about the "longest string of employment gains since the 90's." There is certainly no argument that employment has improved since the financial crisis, however, with the economy six years into a recovery we should certainly expect as much.
5 Charts For Fully Invested Bears
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
While the mainstream media continues to misalign individuals expectations by chastising them for "not beating the market," which is actually impossible to do, the job of a portfolio manager is to participate in the markets with a predilection toward capital preservation. It is the destruction of capital during market declines that have the greatest impact on long-term portfolio performance.
Five Things To Ponder: What This Way Cometh
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This week's reading list is a smattering of reads about 2015. As a contrarian investor by nature, it was interesting to note how hard it was to find views that were NOT bullishly biased. It seems we may have now entered a market realm where Unicorns and Bears are only things of legend.
3 Things - Volatility, The Fed and Yield Spreads
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Since the end of the Federal Reserve's latest QE program, market volatility has picked up markedly. Since October, as QE came to its final bond buying conclusion, the drain of liquidity begin to financial market activity. As shown in the chart below, there have been three fairly sizable selloffs last quarter of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 4.3%.
As We Enter 2015, "Bulls" Should Consider
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we enter into 2015, analyst calls for a continued "bull market" advance have never been louder. There have been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally. The are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles.
Falling Energy Costs And Economic Impacts
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In the financial markets and economics it is a common occurrence that the media and commentators will latch on to a statement that supports a cognitive bias and then repeat that statement until it is a universally accepted truth.
2015 - What Does Cycle Analysis Suggest
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
We cant predict the future if it were possible fortune tellers would all win the lottery. They dont, we cant and we arent going to try to. However, we can analyze what has happened in the past, weed through the noise of the present and try to discern the possible outcomes of the future.
5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past week I have been inundated with questions regarding the dive in crude oil prices and the energy sector in general. Is this a fantastic buying opportunity, or is the bigger of something bigger? The answer depends on your time frame.
5 Things To Ponder: Crude Oppositeness
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past week I have been inundated with questions regarding the dive in crude oil prices and the energy sector in general. Is this a fantastic buying opportunity, or is the bigger of something bigger? The answer depends on your time frame.
10 Legendary Investment Rules From Legendary Investors
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I live in Houston, which has been a huge economic beneficiary of the sustained increases in oil prices, drilling, refining and related processes. As such, the amount of wealth created in energy-related investments has been enormous and, not surprisingly, a vast majority of individuals have overweighted portfolios in energy with the expectations that "oil prices can only go up."
Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Earlier this week Daniel Druger and Liz McCormick wrote an article for Bloomberg entitled: "One Hundred Years Of Bond History Means Bears Destined To Lose." The premise here is simple. With interest rates near their lowest levels on record, they have nowhere to go from here "but up." This is the consensus of virtually all of the analysts and economists on Wall Street which currently suggests that rates will rise to 3.88% next year on the 30-year treasury.
Five Things To Ponder: Unstoppable Force Paradox
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we enter the final month of the year, the markets advance got me thinking about something known as the "Unstoppable Force Paradox." While you may not be familiar with the name, you will certainly know the definition which questions "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"
The Illusion Of Full Employment And Technology
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Recently, Tim Duy wrote an interesting piece entitled "Yes, I am Optimistic" wherein he stated that: "The lesson no one wants to draw from this recovery is that the US economy is both stronger and more resilient than commonly believed. Do not dismiss the real improvement in the economy since 2009. It is not unimportant that 2014 is likely to be the biggest year for private sector employment..."
Five Things To Ponder: Tryptophan Induced Coma
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
As we prepare for the annual food fest, and post-Thanksgiving tryptophan-induced food coma; I thought this weekend's reading list should be a bit of a smorgasbord of interesting topics to stimulate your brain cells between naps and football.
3 Things to Think About, Including the Disconnect between Data And Surveys
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Last Friday, I discussed the growing gap between economic reports particularly when they measure the same basic areas of the overall economy. For example, how can the Markit Manufacturing PMI Index be negative for three months while the ISM PMI has surged higher during the same period. Both cannot be right.
3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Message from Commodities
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Following the October swoon, stocks have vaulted to all-time highs. As I discussed previously in "Sentiment Is Off The Charts Bullish," there have only been few occasions where investors have felt so "giddy" about the financial markets. Such periods of exuberance have never ended well for investors as they were deluded by near-term "greed" which blinded them to the building risks.
Mean-Reverting Profits and Other Things Worth Thinking About
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Earlier this week I discussed the growing detachment between the stock market and the "real" underlying economy. One of the areas I touched on was corporate earnings that have been elevated by an immense amount of accounting gimmackry, cost cutting, and productivity increases. The problem, as I stated, is that historically earnings have grown 6% peak-to-peak before a reversion. Notice, I said peak-to-peak. The issue is that the majority of analysts now estimate that earnings will rise unabated for the next five years.
Early Freeze Could Derail Economic Growth Forecasts
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past August I discussed the potential for the market to rise to 2100 along with "5-risks" to that forecast. One of those risks related to the "Polar Vortex" that shut down economic activity across much of the northern part of the economy.
5 Things To Ponder: GOP Takes Control
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past Tuesday the conservative Republican candidates garnered a resounding victory over their Democratic challengers in even some of the "bluest" states. The message that was sent by voters was quite clear: "The real economy sucks."
3 Things Worth Thinking About, Including the Odds of a Suckers Rally
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Each week in my weekly newsletter I do a complete overview on major markets, sectors and other market areas such as interest rates, gold and oil. I bring this up because the recent melt-down in oil and energy related stocks is something that I warned about in early August of this year.
Why The Fed Will End QE On Wednesday
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This week we will find out the answer to whether the Federal Reserve will end its current quantitative easing program or not. Today is the last open market operation of the current program, and my bet is that it will be the last, for now. Here are my three reasons why I believe this to be the case.
5 Things To Ponder: To QE Or Not To QE
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Over the last few weeks, the markets have seen wild vacillations as stocks plunged and then surged on a massive short-squeeze in the most beaten up sectors of energy and small-mid capitalization companies. While "Ebola" fears filled mainstream headlines the other driver behind the sell-off, and then marked recovery, was a variety of rhetoric surrounding the last vestiges of the current quantitative easing program by the Fed. As I have shown many times in the past, there is a high degree of correlation between the Fed's liquidity programs and the advance in the markets.
3 Things Worth Thinking About: Inflation, the Current Rally and Faith in the Fed
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
What is quickly being realized on a global basis is that injecting the system with liquidity that flows into asset prices, does not create organic economic demand. Both Japan and the Eurozone's interventions have failed to spark inflationary pressures as the massive debt burden's carried by these countries continues to sap the ability to stimulate real growth.
5 Things To Ponder: "Buy" or "Run"
This past week investors to a blow from a sharp selloff in the financial markets. I have spilled quite a bit of ink in recent months discussing the probabilities of such as corrective event as the Federal Reserves current liquidity operation came to a conclusion this month.
Results 801–850
of 871 found.
