Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.
This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation.
Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
Panic is never a good investment strategy—nor is greed. Here's how disciplined investing helps navigate through volatile environments.
How are bull and bear markets defined and how should you approach them as an investor?
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.
Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.
Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.
Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.
First-quarter earnings results have been healthy thus far, but key to the ongoing rally will be companies' recovery in revenue growth and strengthening forward guidance.
While major indexes have seemingly been calm this year, there are notable and stealthy sector leadership shifts that have happened under the surface.
There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.
Inflation looks to still be trending lower, but a relatively stubborn decline will likely inspire the Fed to start cutting rates later (and slower) than expected.
Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.
Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.
Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.
While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.
While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.
With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.
Earnings results thus far underscore the strong bifurcation within the market, which is confirmed by the continued deterioration in breadth throughout the current correction.
While surface-level economic data appear resilient, details below the surface are mixed.
Interest expense is a large and growing issue for both the economy and stock market, which reinforces why investors should stay up in quality amid interest-rate-driven headwinds.
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.
The August jobs report confirms the labor market's continued slowdown, which is for now consistent with the Fed's soft-landing desires—but not without warning signs.
With the path of least resistance for stocks seemingly lower for now, key to watch will be a stabilization in interest rate volatility and clarity on the path of monetary policy.
Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.
Earnings season has thus far been a mixed bag, and despite a notable increase in the beat rate, the market is rightfully shifting focus to guidance for the rest of the year.
The recent broadening out in market breadth has been accompanied by frothier investor sentiment, but using sentiment as a market-timing tool is tricky (if not impossible).
As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.
The recent collection of labor data has painted a mixed jobs picture, but underlying wage strength and still-strong payroll growth will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position.
After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.
Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.
A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.
The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.
