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Oil and Emerging Markets: A Double-Edged Sword
The price of oil has plummeted this year as a result of increased volatility in most markets and a temporary imbalance of supply and demand. In view of continued long-term world growth, particularly in emerging- and frontier-market countries, we believe oil prices will probably not suffer from a prolonged price slump. As we see it, the demand for raw materials in general, including not only oil but also iron ore, copper, nickel and agricultural products, is still likely to increase over the long term with increased global growth.
The Implications of Easing
Just as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the conclusion of its long-running quantitative easing (QE) program, the Bank of Japan surprised markets by announcing the expansion of its own easing regime. Mark Mobius, Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, and Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer, Global Bonds, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group, weigh in on the implications of these central bank actions, as well as current European Central Bank (ECB) policy, and what they could mean for investors on both the equity and fixed income side.
Three Words for Brazil
As long-time investors in Brazil, the recent presidential election has been of keen interest to us. One can certainly say its been an interesting race! The market had been volatile based on the changing polls leading up to the election; there were hopes that new leadership would ignite a positive new direction for Brazils economy, which hasnt experienced the type of economic boom many (including us) had hoped forand believe is possible.
Blurring the Lines Between Emerging-, Frontier- and Developed-Market Stocks
There has been some convergence in terms of how one might classify emerging-, frontier- or developed-market companiesand how they might fit into investors portfolios. Recently, we have noted an increase in liquidity and transparency of many frontier-market stocks (the smaller and lesser-developed subset of emerging markets).
Emerging from the Global Competitiveness Ranks
The World Economic Forum (WEF) recently released its annual Global Competitiveness Report, which details the strengths and weakness of 144 countries in myriad factors including education, infrastructure, health and technology. There arent many huge surprises in the developed markets, as most countries overall rankings were fairly stable from the prior year. There were, however, a few interesting shifts in the ranks among emerging markets: some making leaps forward, and others, regressing.
The Leapfrog: The Role of Technology in Accelerating Emerging Markets Growth
The potential for emerging and frontier markets to realize accelerated economic growth as a result of new technology transfer comes up regularly in our research findings. We have been increasingly excited about a new developmentthe capacity for new technology, particularly related to data over the Internet, to completely bypass swathes of older technology and business activity. We think this could lead to even more dramatic economic progress. In effect, the emerging markets are leapfrogging over the old technology and taking advantage of the newest technology today.
Touring the Investment Landscape in the Czech Republic
My team and I have been touring Central and Eastern Europe this summer, and our travels recently took us to the Czech Republic. Its a country with an interesting history, and from our perspective, it also holds a variety of interesting potential investment opportunities, too.
Winds of Change in Saudi Arabias Investment Climate
One of the most anticipated financial events in the Middle East region finally could come to pass in the near future the opening of the Saudi Arabian stock market to foreign investors. From my point of view, the Saudi Capital Market Authoritys announcement is a game-changer for the region.
Mid-Year Emerging Markets Update: Recovery Phase
As Ive often said, investing in emerging markets requires patience, long-term perspective, and selective stock-picking. I think many investors focus too much on the short-term. As long-term investors, we view short-term bouts of volatility as an opportune time to find potential bargains for our portfolios, and we certainly experienced that in the first half of the year.
Mexicos Road to Reform
Many investors had high hopes for Mexicos market this year given an improving global economic outlook and a slate of planned domestic reforms, but some of the enthusiasm seems to have faded and economic growth has been subdued there year-to-date. I have faith in Mexicos future, even though there are likely to be a few short-term bumps as Mexicos reform efforts continue to be implementedand some challenged.
A Quarter Century of Emerging-Markets Investing
At one time or another, every country could have been classified as emerging. Back in the 1800s, the Western part of the United States was called the new frontier. Investors purchasing farmland there were likely to consider it a highly speculative venture putting stakes in such a rugged and wild place.
Thailands Tensions, and Resilience
Thailands imposition of martial law on May 20 came after months of protests and threats of violence between two opposing sidesthe anti-government group called the Peoples Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), known as the yellow shirts, and the pro-government group called the United Front for Democracy against Dictation (UDD), known as the red shirts. The PDRC demanded for the government to step down to pave the way for an appointed government.
Russian Interests
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high, and have spilled onto the international stage. The Western world seemed to be caught off guard by Russian President Putins reaction to civil unrest in Ukraine, leading to Russias annexation of Crimea and spreading into a broader question of regional sovereignty. The situation remains fluid, so its difficult to predict just exactly how it might play out. But given escalating conflict in Eastern Ukraine, we do not envision an easy or quick end to the conflict.
Indian Investors Express Their Optimism
Some 800 million voters in India are heading to the polls this month in an election process that will take several weeks to complete. India?s stock market has recently reflected the optimism investors feel in India. After a stretch of policy logjams and years of unmet potential in India, we?re also optimistic.
A Creative Approach to Revitalize South Korea?s Economy
South Korea has been an exciting country to follow since Templeton started investing in emerging markets in 1987. The country represents one of the great success stories of the modern age, rising from extreme poverty at the end of the Korean War to become an affluent, democratic and highly technologically advanced country. However, we believe recent years have seen signs that the methods and structures that gave rise to the years of dramatic economic progress have started to lose their effectiveness.
The Economic Cost of Brazil?s Spending Spree
Brazil has been on a spending spree during the past few years, which, unfortunately, has failed to generate meaningful growth and has led to negative economic consequences. In addition to the lavish spending in preparation for the FIFA World Cup? this summer and the Olympic Games in 2016, Brazil?s national oil company has been spending billions of dollars on expensive offshore oil exploration, production and energy development.
Examining Companies Through the Lens of ESG
No matter where we invest, there?s always some sort of risk. This includes not only geopolitical or macroeconomic factors in a given country, but also issues that are unique to a specific sector or individual security. As bottom-up stock pickers, my team and I must assess the potential risks and returns related to each and every company we invest in. One area that warrants closer examination is environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities, which can play a big role in our stock selection and valuation process.
Ukraine at Crossroads
In February, the winter Olympic Games brought athletes from around the world together in Russia, but in Ukraine, Russia's neighbor to the southwest, the story has been one of division. Violent clashes between pro-EU (European Union) protesters and government forces in the past few months have focused the eyes of the world on the former-Soviet state after (now former) President Yanukovych had refused to sign an Association Pact forging closer ties to the EU and decided instead to accept funding from Russia.
Getting Comfortable With Volatility
Over the past few weeks, weve seen significant volatility in the markets, which has spooked some investors, but is also something we have become accustomed to. Markets generally (not only emerging markets) have become much more volatile during the last 20 years as a result of massive flows of money from not only institutional investors and long-only mutual funds but also hedge funds and high-frequency trading. We see such selloffs as potential opportunities to pick up bargains in select stocks if, in fact, the prices move low enough to draw our interest.
United Arab Emirates: An Emerging Market Melting Pot
The investable Middle East/North Africa region known as "MENA" encompasses 11 diverse countries, extending from Oman to Morocco, and also includes Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). I recently had the pleasure of returning to Dubai, the largest city in the UAE, a truly striking and cosmopolitan city with a diverse population from around the world.
Emerging Markets 2014 Outlook: Shaping the Next Decade
As we embark upon a new year, the Templeton Emerging Markets Group believes 2014 could be an important year for many emerging markets, possibly establishing trends that could play out through much of the remainder of the decade. In particular, Chinese government reform initiatives announced in late 2013 could have far-reaching significance. And, major elections in a number of countries in 2014 could bring dramatic (or not-so-dramatic) changes. Here are a few themes and countries weve got our eye on in the new year.
Emerging Markets 2014 Outlook: Shaping the Next Decade
As we embark upon a new year, the Templeton Emerging Markets Group believes 2014 could be an important year for many emerging markets, possibly establishing trends that could play out through much of the remainder of the decade. In particular, Chinese government reform initiatives announced in late 2013 could have far-reaching significance. And, major elections in a number of countries in 2014 could bring dramatic (or not-so-dramatic) changes. Here are a few themes and countries weve got our eye on in the new year.
A New Blueprint for China's Development
Chinas government set out its plans for the rest of the decade in a document called "The Decision on Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms." Known as "The Decision," it emerged from the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee, which took place in early November. The document set out a series of planned reforms that assigned a more central role to markets as President Xi Jinpings administration seeks to maintain Chinas enviable record of long-term growth.
Patience in Asia
Investing in a multitude of markets and companies as we do within the Templeton Emerging Markets Group means that at any given point in time it may appear to some that they are underperforming or outperforming any particular benchmark index or market. Such is the nature of global financial markets. Of course, wed like all of our investments to go straight up, but at the same time continually like to find new bargains for investors.
Shifting Global Fortunes
Most investors, particularly those who live in developed markets, probably arent aware of the influence emerging markets have on the global economy. Im not just talking about China or just about governments. More and more large corporations are headquartered in emerging markets, a trend that I expect to continue. In addition, more of those companies that are located in emerging markets are also joining the ranks of the top companies in the world. In fact, some might be surprised to hear that some of the worlds largest initial public offerings (IPOs) have been in emerging m
No Man is an Island
When your territory spans hundreds of countries on just about every continent and time zone, the importance of teamwork cannot be underestimated. I am extremely fortunate to have the support of a tremendous team of currently 90 professionals in the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, including 52 analysts and portfolio managers, spanning 26 countries and speaking 24 languages. I couldnt do what I do without them! For the past 25 years, Ive had the pleasure of working with Tom Wu, whose research responsibilities include companies in Hong Kong and the Philippines, as well as the bank
When Small is Big
Theres a popular saying in the US, good things come in small packages, which is generally a statement about gifts of jewelry. My team and I find this saying can apply to the investment world, too, as we often find companies that are small in size, but which may have big long-term potential.
Africa's Glass With Attitude
Africa has been an area of interest to our team, for many reasons. One might say Africas biggest asset is its youthful population. With a median age of under 20 in many countries today, that means a very high portion of Africas population is dependent on the adult workforce. Tomorrow, however, it means that the workforce will be massive, and the ratio of dependents to workers (the dependency ratio) could be among the lowest in the world. This huge and youthful population is a key rationale for our interest there.
Could US Issues Lead Investors to Emerging Markets?
The US government had been shuttered for more than two weeks, and investors around the world, including those in emerging markets, have been watching the impasse and beginning to plan in the event of a default of US government debt. Late Wednesday, the US Congress agreed to a short-term extension of the debt ceiling until February and set the stage for the government to reopen. However, a definitive, long-term solution to the nations debt issues was still not reached and we could see a repeat of the political dysfunction.
Is the Pump Primed for Emerging Markets Investors?
The vulnerabilitiesor rather, perceived vulnerabilitiesof emerging markets have been the focus of heightened discussions over the past few months. Concerns about the health of emerging markets came on the heels of political upheavals in Egypt, economic deceleration in China and protest demonstrations in Brazil and Turkey this summer.
Q&A: Emerging Markets Powerhouses China and India
Given their heft in the emerging markets world, China and India are among the countries I get asked most often about, particularly when they show market distress signals like economic slowing.This past week, the Templeton emerging markets team and I have been in China as part of a large research trip, doing further analysis on the market and key company prospects. I thought it would present a good opportunity to share a few of my answers to recent questions on both China and India.
Dividends Matter
Many people think of emerging market stocks as pure growth plays, and may not realize that there is a separate potential benefitdividendsthat can also be available to investors in these markets. A prolonged period of easy monetary policies in many developed nations (particularly the US) has left income-seeking investors searching for alternatives to traditional fixed income, including dividend-paying stocks. Many investors may not realize dividends arent just a developed-market phenomenon.
Have Emerging Markets Gotten Oversold?
At Templeton, weve repeatedly championed our value-driven philosophy by frequently buying at times others are most pessimistic. This is not easy to do, even for seasoned market veterans. During the past few months, emerging markets have been subject to such pessimism. These periods of short-term volatility are certainly not new to us, and dont change our long-term conviction of the potential emerging markets hold.
The Shariah Appeal
For some, the only guiding rule they have for investing is to grow their assets. For others, the rules are more complicated. Specifically in the Muslim world, demand has been growing for investments compliant with Islamic law (Sharia or Shariah) which adhere to a set of religious beliefs and principles. Considering the global Muslim population is expected to grow to 2.2 billion by 2030, representing more than a third of the worlds total population1, I expect rising demand for Shariah-compliant investment vehicles to continue.
Wedding Bells in Romania
I was invited to attend the wedding of one of our Romanian staff in June, and I jumped at the opportunity to celebrate with the happy couple, visit a different part of Romania, and talk to locals about life there. The celebration represented a microcosm of the juxtaposition of old and new in Romania, and this is similar for investors there as progress continues toward market reform.
Brazilians Demonstrate Their Right to be Heard
Brazilians have demonstrated their right to be heard. The unprecedented chain of events that started with complaints about inflation (bus and subway tariffs) has led to mass protests over corruption, lack of public services, and taxes. As a result of the tension and uncertainty in the past few weeks, some investors have lost confidence in Brazils market. After talking with our analysts on the ground there I wanted to share some perspective on the situation.
Welcome Back Greece to the High-Potential World of Emerging Markets
In June, major international equity index provider MSCI confirmed Greeces sojourn among the ranks of developed markets would end later this year as it will become the first-ever country to lose its developed market status in the MSCI universe. Interestingly, Greece was classified as emerging when I started with the Templeton Emerging Markets Group in 1987, and while the recent news might conjure up images of a significant turn for the worse for the countrys economic fortunes, MSCIs explanation for Greeces reclassification was actually mor
The Best Time to Invest
I frequently speak at investment conferences around the world, and get questions ranging from my outlook for a particular market to highly sophisticated investment concepts. One seemingly simple question asked by a young lady years ago at a conference in Canada which I attended with the founder of Templeton Investments, the late Sir John Templeton, was particularly timeless. She asked: Ive just inherited some money from my grandfather. When is the best time for me to invest it?
Emerging Markets Mid-Year Pulse Check
Global economic growth hasnt been terribly inspiring so far in the first half of the year, but many investors have nevertheless been inspired to pour more assets into the equity markets, some of which have surged to record highs. As we hit the mid-year point, now seems like a good time to take a pulse check of emerging markets and assess our prognosis.
Investors Living in Emerging Markets are a Bullish Bunch!
Part of my job involves putting myself out on a limb at times, and I have taken the risk of being subject to contrary (sometimes enthusiastically so) viewpoints. Ive even been accused of being too optimistic about emerging markets, perhaps partly because my views often represent a stark contrast to dramatic news headlines. So when I took a look at the findings of Franklin Templeton Investments 2013 Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS),1 I was pleased to discover my longstanding optimism about emerging markets seems to be spreading among investors.
China's Building, but Will They Come? Ghost Cities
Some of you may have heard or read about the current state of the real estate market in China, often covered in a sensationalistic way, with talk of ghost cities and bubbles ready to burst and so forth. These types of reports can cause quite a jolt in the market, which is what we saw happen, probably not coincidentally, after a popular US television newsmagazine aired a somewhat negative report in March. But as Ive said many times before, theres often more to a story; important parts can end up on the cutting room floor.
Growth From the Ground up in Iskandar
Our emerging markets team isnt too keen on following crowds. Part and parcel of Templetons contrarian approach is traveling to places others arent, and thinking about the long-term potential in specific industries and companies that may not be on others radar screens. One place weve had our eye on for several years now is Iskandar, Malaysia, which has recently been attracting more investor attention. I think it could be viewed as an example of the potential we see in Southeast Asia.
Dodging Soccer Balls and Sharks in Recife, Brazil
Recife, in Brazils northeast Pernambuco state, is known to many as the Venice of Brazil given its many waterways and bridges. A welcome winter stop for our emerging markets team, the city is blessed with a tropical climate thats as warm and sunny as its people. While the residents in this area of Brazil are often regarded as being extremely laid back given the balmy weather, we found them to be very hard workers. We found this seaside and shipping hub was not only a hotbed of tourist activity, but of potential investment opportunities as well.
The Discipline of Buy and Sell Decisions
The thought of giving up a once-treasured possession can be an emotional exercise for anyone, even if the object of affection has outlived its use. As investors, we can find it difficult to sell a once-favored holding even more difficult than the decision to purchase it. But sometimes, you just have to let go.
Thailand: Land of the Smiles
China and India may be Asia's largest economies, but they aren't the only countries with growth potential on the continent. Southeast Asian countries can also offer compelling investment opportunities. Thailand, known as the land of the smiles because of the expression its natural beauty and friendly people inspire, is a country where we believe the economic prospects could give investors reasons to smile too.
Commodities: Correlating Trends with Opportunities
Commodity price inflation is both a social and an economic issue. In emerging markets in particular, food and energy costs take a deeper slice out of consumers' income, which can lead to the type of unrest that causes governments to topple. In addition to the potential impact of extreme weather on food supplies, central banks around the world are printing a flood of money, which could lead to inflated prices for other goods and services.
Results 101–150
of 268 found.
