After the great financial crisis, China’s appetite for commodities and technology fueled a global economic recovery.
I received an email this past week concerning George Soros’ “Theory Of Reflexivity.” It’s an interesting question, and I have previously written about the “Theory of Reflexivity.” Notably, this theory begins to resurface whenever markets become exuberant.
Instead of pivoting directly toward an easing bias, the Federal Open Market Committee opted for a wait-and-watch approach in January. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan expects rate cuts to come, but not quite as soon as or as many as markets have been anticipating.
The can has been kicked down the road several times but it feels like the end of the road is in sight.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is often considered the most important indicator of the health of an economy. But there are other measures that provide different perspectives, which can be more timely and impartial. The level of equity markets is one such indicator that provides a window into what’s going on.
To stay competitive with their peers, big tech companies will need to continue leveraging the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI). Given this competitive landscape, an alternate play on AI could be single-stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in companies like Microsoft.
Read enough financial publications and one is apt to find there’s no shortage of rankings. There’s the Fortune 500 as well as rankings of companies based on customer and employee satisfaction. There are also environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards.
As I observed last month, the strongest stock market returns in the coming decade, perhaps longer, are likely to emerge during advances in the S&P 500 that attempt to catch up with the cumulative return of risk-free Treasury bills.
While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.
Markets have made themselves clear for a while: they want more rate cuts than what Federal Reserve (Fed) members seem to be willing to accept at this time.
There is no shortage of hope – and hype – about what artificial intelligence could do for productivity and economic growth in the future. But we must bear in mind that our politics have proven too dysfunctional, and our policies too misguided, to manage even the most obvious threats to our future.
Emerging-market (EM) assets were resilient in 2023, gaining ground despite conflict in the Middle East, concerns over slowing economic growth in China, and the US dollar’s strength against other regional currencies. Now, with the Fed signaling rate cuts in 2024, the news could get better.
Small businesses are a vital part of the American economy. The U.S. Small Business Administration estimates that they represent over 46% of employment and account for the majority of new job creation. Small business openings are an expression of optimism in an entrepreneur’s ability and support from their community.
GMO’s Jeremy Grantham recently shared what he’s thinking about and watching in markets ahead of Exchange.
At the Exchange conference, I will not be wearing a football jersey and looking over my Super Bowl squares. Instead, I will be on stage asking ETF experts (and my friends and fellow nerds) trivia questions in a quiz show game.
In one week, advisors will flock to sunny Miami for the annual Exchange Conference. Content sessions this year offer advisors insight into growing their business models in unexpected ways, the macro and market environment of 2024, navigating the AI revolution, and more.
Saving rates rose immensely across economies during the pandemic period. Government support programs, many designed to stimulate demand, elevated household incomes.
As the financial markets grind higher, retirement savers have consciously decided to add more to equity risk. Such was the result of a recent Bloomberg survey.
Despite analysts’ increasingly optimistic forecasts for the coming year, the risks to global growth are still tilted to the downside. In fact, recent developments in China, Europe, and the United States suggest that the world economy’s biggest challenges may lie ahead.
A period of market volatility and consolidation is likely as markets have already priced in much of the economy's good news.
The start of 2024 has been marked by record issuance in bonds both in the public and private sectors. But as fresh supply hits the bond market, prices have been dipping as of late.
While interest rates were left unchanged at the January Fed meeting as expected, there were some interesting hints about future monetary policy. Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute, opines.
Through one month and a day of trading action in 2024, the Russell 200 Index is off 2.63%. That’s while large cap benchmarks are rallying. So it’s reasonable that some market participants are noncommittal regarding small caps.
Modern economies, even small ones, are unfathomably complex. The number of variables is far more than any human can comprehend or any model can track. It’s really no wonder so many forecasts are wrong.
Copper was one of only two metals that finished 2023 in the black, gold being the other metal.
Many investors limit their mandates to credits rated BBB or higher. But they could tap high-quality high yield—without adding to overall risk.
Big tech appears to be sloughing off its slow start to 2024 and tech dominance could continue if history once again proves to be correct. If that’s the case, bulls can continue riding the tech wave.
The Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation, but wants more certainty before it’s prepared to lower the policy rate.
Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) are among the magnificent seven members that have delivered fourth-quarter results. The cadre of high-growth mega-caps will be pivotal drivers of S&P 500 EPS for the final three months of last year and beyond.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote in favor of keeping the Bank of England (BoE) policy rate at 5.25%.
Rate hikes are in the rearview mirror, now the issue is when the Federal Reserve starts to cut.
On Super Bowl Sunday, hundreds of advisors will gather at the Exchange conference. The conference does not officially kick off (had to do it) until Monday morning. However, many will join VettaFi and industry friends for an ETF study hall Sunday between 1-5 p.m.
Political risk is global in 2024: Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis highlights key elections to watch across the world in the coming year.
Exchange is less than two weeks away, and the reasons for advisors to go continue to accumulate. VettaFi is thrilled to announce that Dr. Wendy Borlabi will be joining the roster of experts and thought leaders speaking at Exchange.
In Russell Investments’ factor portfolios, the Global Large Cap Growth, Momentum and Size factors outperformed the MSCI All-Country World Index during Q4, while the Global Large Cap Value and Low Volatility factors underperformed the index. The Global Lage Cap Quality factor was flat for the quarter.
The Fed concluded its January policy meeting leaving interest rates unchanged, which was widely expected.
The ETF Playoffs have reached the final round. This weekend, spot bitcoin ETFs will square off against artificial intelligence to see who gets to be the champion of 2024! The winners were determined by vote on Exchange’s LinkedIn page. With the championship nigh, voting for the winner will open soon.
The basic tenets of building wealth, like having a well-diversified portfolio with long time horizons, are not difficult concepts that are relatively easy to implement. So, why don’t people follow them? In our latest insight, we analyze several risk/return charts across multiple time horizons and reveal the results that investors tend to find surprising.
Following scintillating runs by AI-related stocks in 2023, some market observers believe a cooling-off period could be in the cards. However, that doesn’t dent the long-term thesis for AI investing.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs and Professor Nathan Mauck will dive into analyzing GE spinoff consistent growth Genpact Ltd.
The panel discussion, moderated by Freedom Investment Management CIO Ben Lavine, will include Eric Veiel, Head of Global Investments, CIO at T. Rowe Price, and Alex Zweber, Managing Director – Investment Strategy at Parametric.
Many advisors wait until the end of the year to harvest tax losses, but that may not be the best policy. Stock markets frequently go up in the last two months of the year so better harvesting opportunities may be available at other times.
The residential real estate market will continue to be at the mercy of interest rate policy throughout 2024, but there are other corners of the real estate market to consider. One active exchange traded fund, in particular, takes a different approach to real estate.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) elected to not raise the federal funds rate at the January 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Over the next few pages, I will argue that consumer price inflation (CPI), which is now falling rapidly across the OECD, will soon return to levels that central bankers are comfortable with.
Thus far, market momentum has carried over from 2023 into 2024. Things started slow, with the S&P 500 closing down more than 1.5 percent during the first week of the year.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why a different approach to portfolio construction within equities is warranted in 2024.
Good timing often helps some new exchange traded funds. And that was expected to be the case for the 10 recently launched spot bitcoin ETFs, including the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO).
US gross domestic product surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily led by US consumers and the government. Franklin Fixed Income Economist Nikhil Mohan sees the growth mix remaining largely the same in 2024.
