The 11-year equity bull market is certainly getting long in the tooth, but several important indicators suggest we may not be at the end yet.
The recent decline in US corporate cash hasn’t raised a lot of eyebrows, but it has caused one of our equity-quality indicators to flash a warning. Since equity quality is one of the signals with a strong track record of predicting market sell-offs, should investors be worried?
When macroeconomic growth slows, investors get edgy. But the economy isn’t the only thing that drives revenue and earnings growth for companies. Some industries are poised to expand at a rapid clip even if GDP growth is subdued or decelerating.
Equity markets recovered in June as the US Federal Reserve turned decidedly dovish, coming in line with most central banks around the world. But after posting strong gains, to end the quarter close to a record high, how much more steam do US stocks have left?
Global equities advanced in the second quarter, but the path was rocky. Incoming earnings reports will provide important clues about how companies are coping with mounting challenges—from trade wars to global growth—and how investors should position.
There are many ways to apply responsible investing principles to portfolios. But some investing approaches may be more conducive to creating a portfolio with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) qualities than others. Concentrated equities are a case in point.
What’s the long-term outlook for oil in a world shifting to renewable energy? Oil majors publicly say supply-and-demand dynamics will support the market. But their investment choices suggest that they’re preparing for a much weaker oil price in the distant future.
Trade war fears have dominated the headlines recently, but European automakers already face other serious headwinds. We believe bond investors should tread warily in this sector.
Figuring out how to use big data is the next frontier for the asset-management industry. Equity investors must have the right culture—and ask the right questions—to successfully integrate data science into research and investment processes.
When I landed in the brand-new airport in Nigeria’s capital of Abuja I was taken by the modern and cavernous nature of its terminal, a reflection of the country’s future ambitions. One of Africa’s best airports, in Accra, Ghana, also boasts a new terminal.
Earning income without taking excessive risk is a balancing act—and it can be hard to pull off in the late stages of a credit cycle. A credit barbell strategy can help investors stay on their feet.
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) offer a good guide for investing in companies making a positive impact on society. But where do you begin? Start by drilling deeply into the SDGs themselves to identify investible themes.
The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren’t showing much weakness. What’s the story?
Creating a sustainable fixed-income portfolio isn’t just about avoiding harm–it’s about doing good. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals provide a road map for selecting companies that offer products and services that help the environment and create a more equitable, just world.
As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality.
Healthcare stocks served as powerful painkillers during last year’s market declines. Yet the sector offers much more than just downside protection for investors who focus on business potential and resist the urge to predict scientific breakthroughs.
The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react.
Investors shouldn’t avoid risk: it’s how you generate return. One solution is to find good companies that have the right risks for the right reasons and for the right time horizon. With a concentrated portfolio, you can spend more time on fewer companies, get to know them better and see if they’ve got a great runway for growth.
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy.
Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased.
Global value stocks have continued to underperform in 2019. But there’s a big disconnect between the weak returns of cheaper stocks and their underlying earnings profile.
The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times.
India’s financial sector can be as chaotic as a Mumbai street market. But when I recently visited India and looked beyond the noisy headlines, I felt excited about the attractive investment opportunities that were created by the liquidity crisis which started last September.
African swine fever is ravaging China’s pork supply and having a global impact on protein prices. For equity investors, the crisis serves as a reminder that even amid trade-war uncertainty, research into domestic trends can help investors access the country’s vast stock market.
The beauty of EM investing is you can find opportunities in stocks or bonds beyond the narrow focus of headlines.
Credit risk-transfer securities (CRTs) have made the US mortgage market safer by shifting default risk from taxpayers to private investors. The latest attempt to overhaul the housing finance system isn’t likely to change that.
Many equity investors want to help create social benefits while generating strong returns. Deploying a clear investment process that draws on the UN Sustainable Development Goals and integrates ESG factors in research can help investors achieve these twin goals.
European Banks have mostly been magnets for bad news and disappointment for their equity holders. But we believe other parts of the banks’ capital structure offer solid returns, backed by resilient balance sheets.
Why should emerging-market investors exercise caution in a rising market? With big unresolved challenges, we think it’s prudent to target companies with solid fundamentals and stable business models to overcome macroeconomic uncertainty and build a resilient portfolio for the long-term.
Emerging-market bonds got off to a strong start after a difficult 2018. Are more gains possible? We think so, and volatility sparked by increased trade tension may provide a buying opportunity for selective investors.
Technology unicorns are in the spotlight, with Uber’s high-profile IPO expected this week. As scrutiny of their business models intensifies, we think investors should also ask tough questions about publicly traded companies with high sales growth but scant cash flows.
Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road?
Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio.
The financial industry and the muni market has lulled a generation of muni investors into using only one approach: buy and hold to maturity. That was fine in the past, but everything’s changed post-2008 and it’s time for a better muni strategy.
Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns.
US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope.
The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high on April 23, thanks to improving investor optimism. But for some equity investors, market highs signal a good time to reduce downside risk. Shifting a modest allocation into US high yield is an efficient way of doing just that—significantly lowering overall risk while only modestly curbing potential returns.
The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever.
From rising sea levels to catastrophic weather events, investors can’t afford to ignore the risks of climate change. Since many companies would be vulnerable if current climate forecasts materialize, asset managers may want to consider climate change in their equity research process and engage management teams on the subject.
The US yield curve dipped into inverted territory recently. But that’s not necessarily a bad omen for equities. There are several important warning signals—and lately the yield curve’s slope is the only one flashing red.
These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today’s market conditions that may require new responses.
In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns?
The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences.
n today’s low-growth, low interest-rate environment, investors should be patient, and look for opportunities to use volatility to get into desirable investments at the price you’re willing to pay.
Global equities rebounded sharply in the first quarter from the sell-off in late 2018. But conditions remain shaky and caution is warranted. Investors should pay close attention to policy-related risks when considering their allocations.
Signs of a recovery in emerging markets early this year have given way to worries about China’s economic slowdown and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan. But beyond the negative headlines we think many risks that weighed on the market last year have faded and the earnings outlook is relatively strong.
Many US companies have forgotten how to raise prices because they haven’t had to for a long time. In some sectors, such as retail, pricing power has been hobbled by the giant consolidated retailers, leaving other businesses unable to adequately offset inflationary pressures.
Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next.
