Should investors worry about the recent rise in US Treasury yields? If they’re high-frequency bond traders—maybe. But for income-oriented investors with a longer investment horizon, our advice is simple: relax.
The tremors that have battered financial markets recently have been nerve-wracking. But remember, the market is not the economy. Economic growth can persist even when markets decline, and that growth can eventually help to stop the slide.
Some investors aren’t very concerned about Fed policy and rising US interest rates. That’s because history has shown that emerging-market debt frequently posts positive returns even when US bond yields rise.
As the Chinese New Year approaches, investors will welcome the year of China A-shares, soon to be included in the MSCI emerging-market (EM) benchmarks. But put careful consideration into determining which funds are actually ready to join the festivities.
Investors worried about an equity correction might see low volatility as a sign that buying options is a cheap way to protect a multi-asset portfolio. But the cost today is higher than it seems.
After a fantastic year, concerns are growing about a potential downturn in the stock markets. At times like these, it’s especially important to focus on investing strategies that can deliver a smoother pattern of long-term returns.
Market conditions may change in 2018, and that’s good for income-oriented investors. Yes, interest rates are rising and some assets look expensive. But there are still plenty of horses to ride in this race.
Fake news. It’s pervasive these days. And it’s no longer exclusively a problem for politicians, journalists and Facebook. It’s made its way into the capital markets too, particularly in areas of major global economic and financial impact.
As 2018 gets rolling, markets don’t have great expectations for Fed interest-rate hikes. Based on futures pricing, roughly two small increases are anticipated this year. We think there will be more.
After a record 2017, private equity funds have $1 trillion to deploy. The Financial Times reported this week that the buyout industry is raising more money than it can spend. As new risks surface, we think public equity portfolios with the right strategic mindset can deliver similar benefits to investors.
Is the end of quantitative easing (QE) a big deal? Might tax reform provide an added boost to the US economy? Should investors brace for more volatility in 2018? Yes, yes and yes.
Products and companies with sustainable competitive advantages and low capital requirements often make for attractive investments, provided they’re acquired at the right price. So where does this leave blockchain?
Investors seeking floating interest-rate exposure and high yields are increasingly turning to credit risk–transfer securities (CRTs), a fairly new type of mortgage-backed bond. But could US tax-code changes hurt the housing market and, by extension, CRTs? We don’t think so.
They are the primary objectives of municipal bond investing: Safety. Income. After-tax return. But the market doesn’t always provide the ideal environment, and the coming year looks to be no exception. How can muni investors avoid getting knocked off course in 2018? They can adhere to these five strategies.
Changing market conditions over the last five years have taught us a few things about managing risk. The most important lesson? Delivering downside protection constantly requires refining and adjustment.
As the new year begins to unfold, the environment for risk assets is still benign: the global economy is strong, monetary policy is accommodative, and volatility is low and steady. At this point, we don’t see excesses developing that could change that.
The Wall Street Journal published an article on January 7 challenging the safety of municipal bonds as “not [being] the reliable bet they once were.” While its headline may startle some investors, we’ve been endorsing this view for years. Municipal bonds simply aren’t a set-it-and-forget-it choice.
Equity markets are widely expected to do well this year after a stellar 2017. We share the optimism, but are monitoring multiple risks—from style patterns to inflationary pressures—that could deliver surprises as the year unfolds.
2017 was supposed to be the year that would put an end to modest growth, lukewarm inflation and anemic bond yields. It didn’t live up to the hype. But pressures are building, and that means volatility ahead—as well as opportunity.
Emerging-market (EM) equities posted a strong recovery in 2017 after several tough years. But it’s not too late to invest. We think there are still good reasons to add or increase EM exposure in 2018.
Emerging-market bonds delivered strong returns last year, and we think the sector has more potential. In 2018, though, investors will have to exercise caution.
By going on the ground in emerging markets and talking to people in their homes, equity investors can develop research insights about long-term, powerful trends driven by environmental and social sustainability.
As 2018 approaches, investors may want to take some time to reexamine their high-income strategies. We’ve got some advice: Be selective. Be diversified. And, perhaps most importantly, be patient.
At 10 years and counting, the US credit cycle appears to be nearing an end. Could a sweeping rewrite of the tax code keep it alive a little longer? Maybe.
Equity investors appear to have voted in favor of US tax reform. But the optimism may need to be tempered. We believe that the impact of the tax overhaul on individual stocks will be mixed and will depend on several factors.
With the US economy humming and the Fed seemingly pushing all the right buttons, it makes sense to expect more of the same in 2018. That means more rate hikes on the way. The question is: How many?
Millennials are becoming a powerful force in emerging markets (EM). Understanding the social and consumer dynamics of this generation can lead to surprising investment opportunities in diverse sectors.
The volatility bond investors expected when 2017 began never showed up. We suspect it will come out of hiding in 2018. With valuations stretched and monetary policy turning, investors will want to think carefully about which risks they take.
We’ve had, finally, after many years, an acceleration in earnings growth, far faster than the kind of growth we’ve seen in developed markets, and that’s expected to continue into 2018; and I think that’s going to be an important underpinning of strong returns for emerging-market investors.
This year may be remembered for its low volatility and the strong performance of nearly all asset classes across almost all geographic markets. But 2018 may follow a different playbook.
The US Senate approved a tax bill last weekend, and it now appears highly likely that final tax legislation will be passed in the next few weeks. Big changes to the tax rules will impact the economy, taxpayers and financial markets.
One of the things I teach in my history course about the history of financial fraud is that, interestingly, the fraud cycle tracks the financial cycle but with a lag. And the longer that you have a bull market, the more and more specious companies begin to float, to go public...
With the Federal Reserve hiking and US rates on the rise, there’s never been a better time to reposition into global bonds as your core mandate. But when you do, it’s crucial to fully hedge against currency risk.
Tackling global poverty requires more than just charity. Investors can contribute to the effort—and find good sources of return potential—by focusing on companies that behave ethically or provide solutions to key poverty-related challenges.
My good friend Ryan is lucky. His parents bought him a one-bedroom apartment in Boston’s once-gritty South End last year. He promptly quit his job and rented out his condo through Air BnB to support a year of travel.
Many investors are scrutinizing US earnings growth, given that stock valuations are somewhat elevated. Companies that can maintain a successful moat around their business in a changing environment are best positioned to deliver growth and returns.
Emerging markets offer investors plenty of opportunity, but managing downside risk effectively is critical. A flexible framework that integrates multiple asset classes can help.
Giving Day, the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, is fast approaching and with it the year-end charitable-giving season kicks off in earnest. In light of that, here is the response to one of the most common refrains we hear as we work with clients to structure their giving programs: “How can I ensure that my gifts truly make an impact?”
Congressional Republican leaders are hungry for tax reform. The House bill passed. The Senate bill is under debate. But the two versions must be reconciled before final legislation lands on the president’s desk. It’s a lot to digest. Thankfully, we’ve compared the bills and assessed their likely effects on the municipal market.
One of the most common questions we hear from people who have suddenly acquired wealth is, “Should I pay down my debt?” In our view, you should only pay down debt if the costs exceed the benefits.
Tax reform. Interest-rate hikes. Regulatory questions. Inflation. There’s always a reason to put off making changes to your company’s defined contribution (DC) plan. But some improvements will be good for your plan and participants no matter what happens.
The Bank of England recently raised short-term interest rates, as developed-market central banks continue with what we expect to be a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Can the global economy maintain its steady growth? What factors could impact our forecast?
Cigarettes come with warning labels. Tobacco bonds should, too. These securities are highly volatile, and at current prices they have nowhere to go but down. There are healthier alternatives in the high-yield municipal bond market.
Changing the tax code is disruptive. Some of the proposals would affect the municipal bond market if they were to become law. But it’s far from certain they will. What should investors do? Keep their cool and see what develops. And we have one more piece of advice.
Investors today are questioning whether equities are too pricey. We think it’s important to look at valuations from both a relative and absolute perspective, while keeping an eye on what’s motivating the Fed’s rate moves.
Comprehensive, revenue-neutral tax reform could give the US economy a boost. But tax cuts alone are more likely to lead to higher budget deficits than to increased growth.
Equity investors are facing a moment of truth. Is the stock market going to crest? Verifying the quality of portfolio companies today can make the difference between success and failure if conditions get tougher tomorrow.
Jerome Powell, President Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, is likely to continue the central bank’s gradual retreat from unconventional policy. But the test for a Powell-led Fed will come when the economic cycle turns.
The fixed-income offerings in a typical defined contribution (DC) menu can sometimes seem uninspired, but it doesn’t take much to improve the selection. The right combination can enhance core fixed-income allocations, providing diversification and reducing risk.
Now that talk of tax reform has taken center stage in Washington, the biggest concern for municipal investors is whether the upside of lower taxes could spell downside for their municipal bond valuations. The good news is that not every proposed change is likely to have a negative impact.