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Greek Crisis Endangers Private Sector
by Mohamed A. El-Erian of PIMCO, 4/29/10
The Greek debt crisis has morphed into something that is potentially more sinister for Europe and the global economy. What started out as a public finance issue is quickly turning into a banking problem too; and what started out as a Greek issue has become a full-blown crisis for Europe. Absent some remarkable change in the next few days, things will get even more complex for the public sector. It may have no choice but to combine its own exceptional financing efforts with talks on a controversial approach that will be familiar to emerging market observers - private sector involvement.

Complex Structural Changes in China and the Global Economy
by Michael Spence of PIMCO, 4/19/10
China has come to a point where its size and global impact are large. Policy in China will have to be set within a delicate balancing act between domestic growth and development and distributional challenges on one hand, and recognition of global impacts on the other. The large developing countries need to understand better than they currently do that their growing size and presence in trade in goods and services is forcing uncomfortable structural change in the advanced countries as well.

Why the Greek Rescue Isn't Going According to Plan
by Mohamed A. El-Erian of PIMCO, 4/8/10
The triumphant announcement from Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund a couple of weeks ago has not calmed markets, nor has it lowered Greek borrowing costs. Buoyed by a cyclical recovery, markets around the world have yet to recognize the complexity of this situation. When they do, it will also become apparent that Greece is part of a wider, and historically unfamiliar phenomenon ? that of a simultaneous and large disruption to the balance sheets of many industrial countries.

Paul McCulley Discusses PIMCO's Cyclical Outlook
by Paul McCulley of PIMCO, 4/6/10
In an interview, PIMCO Managing Director Paul McCulley discusses his firm's cyclical economic outlook and its impact on investment strategy. PIMCO's cyclical outlook revolves around two core tensions in the global economy. The first is the huge disparity in the rate of recovery between highly leveraged developed countries and relatively balanced developing countries. The second tension is the resistance to cyclical recovery in the developed world due to deleveraging and other headwinds.

Comments Before the Money Marketeers Club: Reflections and Ruminations
by Paul McCulley of PIMCO, 3/26/10
In a technical discussion of monetary policy, McCulley argues the 2 percent real federal funds rate constant in the Taylor Rule should be toast. In a world of deleveraging and cash hoarding, it makes absolutely no sense to reward holders of cash with an after-tax real rate of return. May Wall Street relearn the doctrine of profit-motivated stewardship, he says, and unlearn the false god of speculation-driven avarice.

Rocking-Horse Winner
by Bill Gross of PIMCO, 3/24/10
Prudent lending must be directed not only towards sovereigns that can escape a debt trap, but ones that can do so with a minimum of reflationary consequences and currency devaluation. A unit of quality credit spread will do better than a unit of duration. Rates face a future bear market if global reflation is successful as central banks eventually normalize quantitative easing policies and 0 percent yields. Spreads in appropriate sovereign and corporate credits are a better bet as long as global contagion is contained. If not, a rush to the safety of Treasury bills lies ahead.

How to Handle the Sovereign Debt Explosion
by Mohamed A. El-Erian of PIMCO, 3/11/10
The simultaneous deterioration of public finances in many advanced economies represents a significant regime shift with consequential and long-lasting effects. In 2008 and 2009, governments had to step in to counter the simultaneous implosion of housing, finance and consumption, and now the world must deal with the consequences of how they did this. Governments will not be able to rely on growth or private sector holdings to overcome their debts. Policymakers will need to make difficult decisions about higher taxes and lower spending.

Don't Care
by Bill Gross of PIMCO, 3/1/10
A lack of global aggregate demand, brought by twenty years of accelerated globalization, is the fundamental economic problem of our age. Many states have used government debt to make up for shortfalls in aggregate demand. But as the crises in Dubai, Iceland, Ireland and Greece show, not every state is able to pay off its new debt load. Investors should therefore concentrate on states that have lower credit or inflationary risk, such as Germany and Canada, and avoid higher-risk states such as Greece and the U.K.

The Ring of Fire
by Bill Gross of PIMCO, 1/26/10
Bill Gross reviews two recent analyses (the Reinhart/Rogoff book and the McKinsey study) of the plight of economies faced with large fiscal deficits. He says that these support PIMCO?s view of the Ne

Let's Get Physical
by Bill Gross of PIMCO, 1/6/10

Paul McCulley Discusses PIMCO's Cyclical 2010 Outlook
by Paul McCulley of PIMCO, 12/26/09

Credit Now, Equities Later
by Kiesel of PIMCO, 12/4/08
Results 1,651–1,662 of 1,662 found.