Asset Allocation

Geopolitical risks are still lingering in the background, but the story lately has been all about earnings. A strong 1Q26 season, paired with a steady drumbeat of upbeat management commentary, has helped push the S&P 500 to 21 record highs this year.

Businesses are racing to build the physical infrastructure that makes AI usable at scale – data centers, the graphics processing unit (GPU) hardware stack, power, and cooling.

The market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Lower oil prices, easing Treasury yields, and the relentless buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure are still providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

The global defense industry continues to move rapidly from legacy, heavy-hardware platforms to agile, unmanned systems. Today, the Trump Administration announced that it’s pursuing funding deals for drone companies in an effort to increase domestic production in today’s defensive landscape.

The ETF landscape includes a wide variety of innovative, intriguing funds that look to meet investor goals. From equities to fixed income, all kinds of strategies offer intriguing spins on areas like income and dividends.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has expanded its alternative lineup with the launch of the JPMorgan Managed Futures Plus ETF (JPFP) on the Nasdaq. The actively managed fund combines a core U.S. equity allocation with a systematic managed futures strategy spanning equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Closed-end funds may not be a hot topic right now, but they offer a highly compelling means to solve today's macroeconomic woes.

New York City is facing one of the most significant fiscal challenges in recent memory. The NYC Comptroller has projected a $2.2 billion budget shortfall for FY2026, growing to a $10.4 billion gap in FY2027 (Source: New York City Comptroller, January 2026). That is a two-year deficit of roughly $12.6 billion.

For the last eight years, GMO’s Asset Allocation team has held a differentiated view on Japanese equities. Long before Japan re‑entered the global investment narrative, we argued that the country was undergoing slow but durable structural changes aimed at improving corporate governance, growth, and capital efficiency. These reforms were never expected to deliver quick results. Instead, we expected them to compound quietly over time.

The essential feature of a useful alternative asset isn’t that it’s unusual or exotic, but that its returns aren’t tightly linked to the risks that already dominate the portfolio. The value of an alternative asset comes from the way it interacts with the other assets in the portfolio.

The dollar is supposed to be dying. We’ve heard that argument for the better part of a decade, and it’s getting louder, not quieter. Dollar dominance isn’t fading. In fact, the events of late April 2026 just delivered the loudest counter-signal in years.

Equities extend gains as earnings and semiconductors lead markets higher. Consumer confidence remains subdued despite economic resilience. Inflation is easing gradually but remains above the Fed’s targey.

Recent Federal Reserve communications have turned more hawkish, reflecting concern that persistent supply-driven price pressures could begin to feed into inflation expectations. But unlike in prior cycles, today’s environment is not defined by supply shocks alone.

In the 24-hour financial news cycle, there’s much buzz surrounding the buildout of infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI). What about infrastructure beneficial to humans? There are plenty of ETF opportunities in the sector that’s gone from defensive hedge to dynamic capital appreciation engine.

Many debates in defined contribution (DC) circles focus on fees, new asset classes, and ever more complex solutions. But the biggest improvement available to plan participants may come from something far simpler: how their fixed income is managed.

The next IPO wave may create a different kind of portfolio challenge for institutions already holding private stakes in companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.

As globalization gives way to reshoring and resurgent resource nationalism, emerging markets may offer fresh alpha opportunities through their ability to supply the raw materials required to fuel the AI boom.

May is 529 Month. As college costs rise, learn five practical ways to maximize your plan’s tax benefits, flexibility and growth potential to prepare for the future.

Commodity market trends: Commodity markets have been on an impressive, and volatile, run so far this decade, with leadership oscillating between energy and precious metals. Not surprising, after commodities’ “Lost Decade” of the 2010s, given the asset class tends to move in long capital cycles.

Equity investors are facing monumental questions about their allocation strategies in a new market regime. Market concentration has risen sharply, valuations have climbed to record highs in parts of the market and factor volatility has dominated returns.

Recent market volatility and the conflict in Iran have understandably pushed many emerging market investors to the sidelines. But periods of uncertainty have historically offered attractive entry points into emerging market debt (EMD), particularly when underlying fundamentals are improving and asset flows are likely to increase.

Since early April, U.S. stocks have rallied sharply despite an ongoing war, rising inflation fueled by soaring oil prices (near $100/barrel), higher bond yields (up 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points), and frothy valuations (21 times projected earnings vs. a historical average of 17 times for the S&P 500 Index).

On the surface, last week looked engineered to embarrass our positioning. The dollar index climbed to a six-week high above 99.3 by Friday and finished the week roughly flat at those levels.

This persistent growth highlights how central low-cost core index products remain to advisor and retail portfolios alike. Even as asset managers roll out specialized strategies, capital continues to flow within broad-market beta.

A tidal wave of conversions has siphoned an unprecedented amount of capital out of mutual funds and into the ETF wrapper. Last year’s record 60 mutual-fund-to-ETF conversions in 2025 across 31 firms pushed total converted assets past $260 billion, and the past five years have now seen a grand total of 203 conversions.

In a relatively light week for traditional economic data, a mix of corporate earnings, business surveys, Federal Reserve minutes, and the latest read on the consumer from the University of Michigan helped paint an increasingly clear picture for investors.

The push for international equities diversification continues amid shifting global macroeconomic conditions. These days, investors have more options when it comes to international exposure. Given the current market uncertainty, they may want to put quality at the forefront of their decision-making process.

Thanks to strong gains in markets over recent years, the 60/40 default portfolio has quietly morphed into a bundle of expensive U.S. growth equities and credit exposures offering narrow spreads over Treasuries.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) made a big announcement this week, touting $100 billion in total ETF AUM. The milestone comes following the firm’s recent acquisition of Innovator ETFs adding several notable funds to the firm’s overall roster.

Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.

After three decades of watching market cycles play out from both sides of the trade, I’ve come to a simple conclusion: Wall Street’s love of simple rules is one of the most dangerous aspects of investing.

Global equity markets moved modestly higher this week as first-quarter earnings season continued to deliver strong results.

Despite the move lower late last week, U.S. Treasury yields are still holding well above recent lows and close to highs not seen in more than a year. By contrast, risk assets are firmly bid: U.S. equities have been routinely touching new historical highs, and credit spreads over Treasuries remain tight.

Yes, we have been there before, only to be disappointed. But the market smells a real settlement to open Hormuz, and WTI oil briefly dipped below 90 for the first time in weeks. If an opening occurs, expect the market to continue its march upward, as the momentum trade gathers strength.

Despite headwinds from rising oil prices, fundamentals have remained strong. The S&P 500 has notched 18 record highs year to date and, more importantly, surpassed our prior target of 7,250. Following a standout 1Q earnings season, we are raising our 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate to $326 from $300.

This piece examines the distinction between volatility and drawdown risk in portfolio construction, and why managing routine market fluctuations may not address the drivers of long-term wealth outcomes. The article is attached as a Word document, and the related chart is included as a separate image file.

On May 26, 1896, Charles Dow calculated a simple arithmetic average of 12 industrial stocks and arrived at a closing value of 40.94. Now, exactly 130 years later, that same benchmark has crossed the historic 50,000 threshold.

Private markets (private equity, private credit and real estate) have historically delivered an “illiquidity premium”. Institutions and family offices have recognized this illiquidity premium and have historically allocated significant capital to capture it.

Since the post-COVID recovery began, U.S. nonfinancial corporations have generally managed capital conservatively. They have kept credit metrics stable and, in many cases, actively improved them. That discipline was not entirely voluntary: The sharp adjustment in funding costs triggered by the Federal Reserve’s 2022–2023 rate hiking cycle raised the bar for incremental borrowing and pushed management teams toward balance sheet restraint.

In this video, Chuck Carnevale explains why he believes a diversified dividend-growth stock portfolio can be a better long-term strategy for retirees than the traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond allocation. Using a real-world portfolio he created in August 2021, Chuck demonstrates how an all-equity income portfolio can provide both rising income and capital appreciation while helping investors stay ahead of inflation.

Artificial intelligence (AI) might be the talk of the town these days, but quantum computing is the quiet thunder rumbling in the background. It just got much louder with the U.S. White House commiting to roll out a massive $2 billion funding package distributed across nine quantum computing companies.

Chasing performance by deviating from a benchmark has long been the hallmark of active managers. But it may be time for a rethink. Our research suggests that investors allocating to core equities should consider refreshing the criteria they use to identify portfolio managers that can consistently beat their benchmarks.

For private equity firms, capital flexibility is prized today. Merger-and-acquisition (M&A) activity has cooled, while commodity prices and artificial intelligence (AI)-driven disruption have heated up, creating uncertainty for investors. This makes it more challenging to sell portfolio companies, so private equity firms are holding investments longer. As a result, many firms are turning to net asset value (NAV) loans for capital needs.

By moving beyond benchmark constraints, active portfolios can access off-the-run bonds, specific securitized tranches, and maturity buckets with superior risk-reward profiles. They also have the flexibility to adjust positioning throughout the market cycle — reallocating across sectors, ratings, and issuers as conditions evolve to capture opportunities and mitigate drawdowns.

I still don’t think the Fed is close to a rate hike, but for the upcoming June FOMC meeting, a shift in the language of the policy statement from an easing bias to one of a ‘balanced’ outlook seems to be the most likely scenario. However, the fed funds futures market has now fully priced in a rate hike for March 2027, a remarkable shift from its pre-war status of discounting almost three rate cuts for the same timeframe.

Industry discussions on Janus Henderson’s ETF lineup are typically centered around its fixed income funds given the firm’s history in this asset class. However, the issuer also has equity ETFs that are garnering attention, which include a fund that’s close to crossing the $1 billion assets under management (AUM) threshold: the Janus Henderson Small-Mid Cap Growth Alpha ETF (JSMD).

Stephen Dover shares key insights from the Franklin Equity team about how artificial intelligence is changing the economics of the software industry.

Some institutional investors who had grown accustomed to outperforming the broader private equity composites are finding they have not done so consistently in recent years. Their diagnoses of the problem often center on specific decisions or biases they made in their recent manager selection, whereas a likely culprit is a falloff in the persistence of outperformance among private equity managers.

College costs continue to rise, and for many families, education is one of the most meaningful investments they will make. Preparing for those expenses often requires planning years, sometimes decades, in advance.

Nvidia is now a textbook fit for quality-focused indexes in ETFs given its strong underlying business fundamentals. The company has become the smartest kid in the quality classroom, scoring exceptionally high on metrics like high return on equity (ROE), strong return on invested capital (ROIC), stable earnings growth, and low balance sheet leverage.

Recently, Matthew Bartolini, global head of research strategists at State Street Investment Management, sat down with VettaFi to discuss where inflation stands, opportunities within portfolio construction, and much more.

Global bond yields are reaching frightening levels due to the continued war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Continued high oil prices and the threat of reverberating inflation are causing investors to demand higher yields on government bonds.

Equities advanced in April, but hedges remain few and far between, as traditional risk mitigants like bonds and gold continue to show a correlation with stocks.

Watching your children step into financial independence is one of the most rewarding and complex milestones families experience. As young adults begin earning income, managing expenses, and making major life decisions, the habits and financial knowledge they develop can shape their long-term success.

Sustainable investing in fixed income has come of age. Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent economic and trade uncertainty, sustainable fixed income continued to demonstrate its appeal in 2025.

Model portfolios are a key pillar for asset managers competing for advisor and investor attention. They offer straightforward, pre-packaged tools that help investors target and achieve specific financial goals. Designing and operating models, however, takes a particular set of skills. Goldman Sachs Asset Management recently made a big hire therein.

With mega tech AI capital expenditure projected to cross a staggering $660 billion to $750 billion, according to estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs, CreditSights and Bloomberg, saying the stakes are high for Nvidia and the AI ecosystem is an understatement. It’s no wonder we can focus on little else this week.

While most institutional investors recognize that private equity and public equity share similar economic risks, they often seem to ignore how their aggregate equity portfolio is affected by their substantial allocation to private equity.

In the past year, new models from industry leaders have continued to boost AI’s capabilities. According to various capabilities tests, Anthropic’s Mythos model has leapfrogged other AI models – including in the ability to thwart or support cyberattacks.

Right now, AAI’s two highest 10-year expected return forecasts are for large-cap value equity strategies outside the United States—Emerging Markets RAFI and Dev ex US Large RAFI. AAI’s expected return model anticipates valuations for equity strategies to mean revert and therefore tends to elevate out-of-favor regions and styles, predicting higher future returns for recently underperforming equity indices.

Institutional investors have spent years hearing about the promise of artificial intelligence. That phase is giving way to a more practical question: not whether AI can create more scale, but whether that scale can be governed, validated, and translated into better fiduciary decisions. For OCIO providers, AI without discipline is not an advantage.

In fixed income investing, trade execution plays an important role in overall portfolio performance. The ability to source bonds efficiently, invest capital thoughtfully and execute trades at competitive prices can directly affect investor returns.