Home prices fell for the first time in eight months in March according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.2% month-over-month and was up 0.7% year-over-year, the 14th straight month of slowing price growth and the lowest level since June 2023.
After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.5% and the annual change fell to -2.4%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 20-City composite aims to measure the value of residential real estate in the following 20 major U.S. cities: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington D.C.
The benchmark 20-city index fell for a second straight month in March. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index were down 0.2% month-over-month and saw a 0.8% increase year-over-year, the smallest annual change since July 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change was reduced to -0.4% and the annual change fell to -2.2%.
The S&P Case-Shiller benchmark 10-City composite, a subset of the 20-city index, aims to measure the change in value of residential real estate in the following 10 major U.S. cities: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, and Washington D.C.
The benchmark 10-city index fell for the first time in eight months in March. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the 10-city index were essentially flat month-over-month and saw a 1.4% increase year-over-year, the smallest annual change since July 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change was reduced to -0.3% and the annual change fell to -1.6%.
Here is the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release:
ANALYSIS
"More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index edged up just 0.7% in March from a year earlier, decelerating from February’s 0.8% rate. With consumer inflation accelerating to roughly 3.3% in March, U.S. home values have now fallen in real terms for the 10th consecutive month, underscoring an ongoing erosion of inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
"The geographic divergence remains stark," Godec continued. "Midwest and Northeast markets are sustaining modest growth, while much of the Sun Belt and Western regions are still seeing declines. Chicago led all cities with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by New York (4.0%) and Cleveland (3.0%). In contrast, Seattle’s 2.5% year-over-year decline was the steepest in March, with Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%) joining Seattle among the weakest performers. Even Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) turned negative. The spread between the strongest and weakest markets – 8.6 percentage points, from Chicago’s +6.1% to Seattle’s -2.5% – highlights how localized this housing cycle has become. (Detroit’s March reading remains unavailable due to local transaction data delays.)
"Monthly price movements offered a seasonal spring lift but little underlying momentum. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index climbed 0.7% from February, and even double-digit composite markets like the 10-City and 20-City posted strong March gains (1.2% and 1.0% NSA, respectively). Yet after seasonal adjustment, the National and 20-City indices both slipped 0.2%, and the 10-City ticked down 0.03%, confirming that demand remains soft as we head into spring. The latest six months saw only a negligible 0.3% rise in national home prices, barely keeping pace with the 0.3% in the prior half-year – a sign of a housing market nearly at a standstill.
"Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have resumed climbing. The 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6% in late February but rebounded to roughly 6.4% by the end of March, re-intensifying the affordability squeeze on buyers and potentially further damping home sales and price growth," Godec concluded.
