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Things My Mother Told Me and Some She Didn't
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 5/15/13
Today the phrases Im most likely to hear are very different. A couple of them are well worth heeding. Theyre all well known on Wall Street but they never passed over my mothers lips.

Is Your Investing One Dimensional?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 5/8/13
At the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Uncommon Knowledge Conference in Denver last week, a reporter from Financial Planning magazine asked us, What is active investing? Many confuse the phrase with the simple act of running a mutual fund populated with stock picks within the strict guidelines of a prospectus, as opposed to running an index fund, where the manager simply buys and holds the shares making up a particular stock or bond index.

All That Glitters
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 4/16/13
Gold prices officially fell into bear market territory on Friday. With a 4% decline that day, the current drop in the price of gold from its August 22, 2011 top crossed the negative 20% mark. Today as I write this, the precious metal is down another 10% plus.

Twins
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 4/9/13
Any thoughts that the stock market was going to extend its rally were also shortened last week by a truly horrendous jobs report. In an economy that needs 250,000 new jobs each month just to replace retirees, we only had slightly more than 80,000 in March. The economists expectations were bunched around 200,000, so the disappointment in the air was palpable when the market opened and swiftly sank 150 points on the Dow Industrials.

Finally
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 4/2/13
With a headline like that, I could be talking about my Law School Alma Mater, the University of Michigan, making it back into the Final Four for the first time since 1993 by beating the University of Florida in the NCAA South Regional basketball Finals yesterday. Or it could be the exclamation of most Michiganders with the first sunshine-filled days this weekend since spring had sprung earlier in March (yes, the ice also finished melting on our lake this weekfinally).

Throw the Book at Him
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 3/26/13
On February 2, Ground Hog Day, Punxsutawney Phil failed to see his shadow forecasting, and as legend has it an early spring. Yet on the first day of spring, I looked out my back window at a lake still more than half frozen with my view partially obscured by a wicked little snow flurry. So much for forecasts!

Spring Thaw
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 3/12/13
The first thing you notice when you are landing at Detroit Metro Airport in the winter after two weeks in the Caribbean is whether or not there is snow on the ground. I am pleased to report that other than a few clumps left by the snow plows or swept by the wind into the empty furrows and fenced-in corners of a farmer's field, the six inches that covered everything when I left have largely disappeared.

Lessons Learned
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 3/6/13
The need for taking precautions, preparing for emergencies, having "just-in-case" options, was a much discussed topic...right after the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Not so much anymore.

Is This Market "For the Birds"?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 2/27/13
Last week, the stock market hit one of those gusts of headwind that seemed to stop the 2013 rally in its tracks and push it backward. When that happens, as it is again today, it is like watching the gull traverse just a few feet in front of us on the beach. What happens in the short run can be progress or retreat.

Nervous Investors Approaching a Trap?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 2/20/13
With the S&P 500 reaching new post-crash highs, it is interesting, to say the least, that most individual investors are not bullish on stocks. Rather, as the market has moved relentlessly higher this year, individual investors have turned more and more bearish.

Is Love in the Air?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 2/12/13
This week includes Valentine's Day, the day millions worldwide exchange cards, letters, candy, flowers and other gifts with the center of their affection. Surely there must be a study of Valentine's Day. But search as I might, I could not find a single study of the influence of this fabled day on our financial markets. I did find one in Australia that dared to show that the chances for an up or down day in their stock market were, what else, 50-50. Could it truly be that we had finally found a seasonal event that was dare I say it random?

Are We There Yet?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 2/5/13
Last week we talked about the numerous commentators urging investors to buy the dips. We pointed out that many of them (unlike many of the Flexible Plan strategies) were under invested during the stock market rally that began last November and thus were simply trying to finally get on the market band wagon.

Taking a Dip?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 1/30/13
In the cold Midwest in January, the only talk of dips tends to be at Super Bowl parties or during the annual Polar Bear Club celebrations when a few hardy, scantily clad individuals jump into the frigid winter waters. Of course, in the summer those dips are much more inviting, following which a double "dipped" cone from the ice cream parlor has plenty to recommend it. But tune in to any financial news program or pick up your favorite financial read and you'll see that dips are all the rage. In this case, the reference is to "buying on dips."

Breaking Away
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 1/24/13
With the college and the NBA seasons now in full stride, these breakaways are on full display every day of the week and most hours of the day throughout television land. Not to be outdone, the stock market staged its only breakaway last week as it broke out above its post-correction high and scored a new market-rally highpoint. As the chart illustrates, this has been a hard fought victory. The market made the just-broken highs back in September. Since then, uncertainty sustained by an election and impending fiscal cliff had formed a nearly impenetrable defense.

New Ice
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 1/15/13
Last week, the immediate snap-back reversal we were expecting lasted 3 days and then the rebound to new short-term highs that we also spoke about occurred as well. While it is always difficult in the very short term to tell if we are back on track, to me it looks like we remain pointing higher, expecting some short-term dips along the way.

Stock Market Rocket
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 1/9/13
I know that if you spent any time during the holidays around children eight or older, you probably saw some pretty amazing electronic toys, communication, and entertainment devices. But 50-some years ago one of the best toys in the world was...a rubber band. Today the snap of the rubber band holds a different meaning to me. It symbolizes what I believe has been happening in our stock market.

Cliff Diving
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 12/18/12
A "fiscal" cliff potentially to be caused not by the confluence of divers, swirling ocean and towering cliffs, but by a huge impending tax increase and self-imposed unspecified cuts that must be made automatically at year end to essential defense and social welfare programs, all to deal with a tidal wave of government spending, resulting in a nation drowning in debt.

Up, Then Down
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 12/11/12
Five losses in a row for my Detroit Lions, and every one a heartbreakerin most of the games they led by at least ten points at one time. Getting ahead but still losing is a pattern that is not restricted to sports, but is also encountered in investing. It's surprising that conventional stock market investing has not seemingly developed any effective ways to counter it. Yet with profits in most of our strategies so far this year, it's important to seek to do so.

Seasonal Rallies and Fiscal Cliffs
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 11/27/12
Black Fridaythat term used to be reserved for days that major crashes began in the stock market. Fortunately, we saw anything but last week as stocks soared to their best week in months. The market followed through once again on the pre- and post-Thanksgiving positive seasonality pattern that we reported on last week.

When is the Turkey Supposed to Arrive?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 11/20/12
This Thanksgiving week historically has not been a turkey in the markets. Since 1950, stocks have advanced the day before and after the holiday 76% of the time. Yet, this year the turkey in the financial markets seems to have arrived early. Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 Index have fallen 5.1% since the Tuesday Election Day close.

October Surprises
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 10/23/12
Ever since President Lyndon Johnson announced on October 30, 1968 that he was halting the bombing of North Vietnam and intensifying talks with the Viet Cong, there has been fear or hope for an October Surprise in Presidential election years. Back then, it was believed the intention was to help Johnson's Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, win the Presidency. And it almost did, as Humphrey quickly moved up in the polls, although losing six days later by a narrow 0.7% of the popular vote.

Uncertainty Reigns
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 10/16/12
Since I last wrote this column we have had a couple of election year debates that have settled one issue: the race for the White House is not settled. Going into the debates, many commentators were declaring the race over. The appearance that the re-election of Barack Obama was a fait accompli gave the financial markets a sense of certainty with regard to one of the biggest question marks that had been overhanging the markets all year. If there is one certainty to trading the financial markets it is that investors hate uncertainty. It invariably leads to lower stock prices.

Nothing's Perfect
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 10/4/12
On September 21, the Apple iPhone 5 made its debut simultaneously on four continents. Its first weekend saw over five million in sales! And the current inventory was sold out within a week a perfect product introduction. Wellnot quite. Soon articles like iPhone 5?s Biggest Problems started showing up, talking about scratching, chipped exteriors, lens flares and others. Then there were complaints about its faulty Maps application that even drew a rare corporate apology last week. It just proves the point of this weeks Hotline: Nothings Perfect.

The Beginning of Fall Blues
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 9/25/12
I only have time for a short note today. It's probably a reflection of the shorter days that fall ushers in or maybe the increased pace of business that the end of summer vacations seems to ignite. Speaking of seasons, the market weakness we saw last week is just what our Political Seasonality Index has been suggesting that the stock market might have in store for us in this period.

Shock and Awe
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 9/18/12
Almost twenty years ago, the US initiated a campaign of "Shock and Awe" with its bombing campaign on the Iraqi capital city of Bagdad. I bring this up because some commentators are comparing the Federal Reserve announcement made last week (not to mention the shocking new Arab unrest and murder of our Ambassador!) to the "Shock and Awe" of the first day of the Iraq War. What made it "Shock and Awe" was that the new Fed policy differed, according to John Carney at CNBC, in three ways from past Fed actions.

Mondays!
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 9/11/12
In 1965, John Phillips penned Monday, Monday for the first album released by The Mamas and the Papas. The song was a melancholy downer. But it is perfect for summing up the experience for most investors over the last ten years. As you can see, if one had only invested on Mondays, the result would have fallen significantly short of investments for the full market period.

Laboring a Point
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 9/6/12
Right before Labor Day each year we are treated to a major policy speech at the Federal Reserve Board's meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee. In 2010, we were treated to suggestions from Chairman Bernanke that a new period of Quantitative Easing was near. And sure enough, the Federal Reserve announced QE2 on October 22nd of that year.

The Calm Before the Storm?
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 8/30/12
I know these are the dog days of summer, a time that Jack London captured perfectly in the quote here. Nothing much is happening in the financial world as summer draws to a close. There was little news from Europe. The last of earnings reporting season is behind us, and while the results were the worst since the rally began in March of 2009, they were not terrible.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T
by Jerry Wagner of Flexible Plan Investments, 8/22/12
With 18 Grammys, the Queen of Soul, Detroiter Aretha Franklin has certainly earned the respect of millions over a fifty-year career in show business. Conversely, despite six advancing weeks in a row, the latest bull rally just can't get any of that R-E-S-P-E-C-T.

Smartphone Attachment
by Jerry Shih of Matthews Asia, 8/10/12
On a recent family vacation to Yellowstone National Park, I was unable to use my smartphone due to a lack of fast mobile broadband service. I survived, but being disconnected for a full week made me realize how my phone has become an indispensable part of my life. Smartphone cell phones with processors to support operating systems running multimedia programs, Internet access and third party applications have become essential to consumers in developed markets.

Assessing New Tools to Protect Against Tail-Risk Events
by Jerry Miccolis, 2/15/11
Protecting against sudden, severe market drops is as crucial as it is difficult. A plethora of approaches to this problem have been brought to market in last few years, and to evaluate them my firm developed a set of rigorous criteria. These criteria led us to a solution that works for us and for our clients.

Beyond Grantham: Politics and Investment Strategy
by Jerry Minton, 7/14/09
Jeremy Grantham, the chairman of GMO, believes strongly in what he describes as market "inefficiencies" within the "Presidential Cycle." He is referring to the fact that stock market returns are not distributed randomly across the four-year presidential election cycle, but rather are strongly skewed to favor the pre-election year. Grantham believes - and guest contributor Jerry Minton agrees - the evidence is incontrovertible: the behavior of the political class over the election cycle effects the distribution of stock market returns.
Results 101–132 of 132 found.