Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
Many American consumers recently endured their first inflationary cycle, and recent trade headlines have elevated fears of a another bout with higher costs. While not impacted by tariffs, energy markets may play a critical role in driving the price level during the balance of this year.
To say that it has been a tumultuous year in Canada would be an understatement. The country’s business model, which relies heavily on commerce with the United States, has been put under severe stress by the American administration.
The last time the dollar needed policy intervention was in 1985. The dollar was ascendant, and that put American exports at a disadvantage.
The time is right to let the Fed's balance sheet level off.
Policies to support mainstream crypto adoption are underway.
Short-term deadlines will complicate long-run plans.
Differing sales tax regimes can appear unfair.
The greatest benefits of TCJA were deep in its details.
U.S. dependence on metal imports could prove costly.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Tax and spending cuts will face Congressional roadblocks.
From the start of December to their recent peaks, 10-year yields have gained 68 basis points in the U.K., 60 basis points in the U.S., 55 basis points in Germany and 48 basis points in Canada.
When and how will new policies take shape?
As the year comes to a busy conclusion, we’re still catching up with news that didn’t make the front page. In the first week of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published a data release that’s even less frequent than the four year presidential election cycle.
We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.
The people have spoken. While there are still some unknowns, the contours of the American government that will be seated next January are reasonably clear.
The election is unlikely to influence monetary policy.
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
The regulatory outlook is a question of direction more than extent.
New business formations have held up, but closures are also rising.
Sports fans know that a lot can change in the fourth quarter of a game. So too for the U.S. economy, as a substantial labor action commenced the minute that calendars turned to the fourth quarter of 2024.
The next president will face a difficult fiscal context.
How rapidly should the Fed cut rates?
The next U.S. president will face immediate fiscal challenges.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Last week, we explored the old economic rules that falsely predicted an imminent recession. Losing those guideposts has complicated our efforts to craft an outlook.
Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Metals from Mexico may have a much further point of origin.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets, with a spotlight on the eurozone.
Chief U.S. Economist Ryan Boyle explains why measures of inflation don't match feelings about prices.
Higher education is one among many paths to success.
An array of data sources show a labor market that still has plenty of strength.
Mexico has momentum to meet demands from reshoring.
Summer hiring promises more than just monetary rewards for teens.
Home equity lending does not require policy support.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, employment, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
However we measure inflation, we see an incomplete recovery.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, interest rates and inflation.
Skepticism is warranted when inflation stories exclude bad news.
The FOMC has enough factors to consider without adding politics to the mix.
Financial stability is much improved since last year's stress.
Demand for copper is on the rise. Can its supply keep pace?
We had expected the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in June. But as more of our audiences asked why, we saw the case was not strong. This week’s inflation reading seals the deal: we now expect the easing cycle to start in September.
Immigration is coming up everywhere, including economic data.
Evidence of overstretched households is emerging, which could threaten the soft landing scenario.
More charging stations and lower prices can break EV sales out of their slump.
